August 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was at very low levels from 11-14 July with only a few simple sunspot regions.  

A sunspot group emerged on 15-17 July producing 13 C Class flares, the largest of which was late on the 17 July.

The Solar Flux reached high levels throughout the period, particularly on 17 July at 1630.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The majority of the period was under the influence of high speed solar wind streams from a large coronal hole peaking on 12 July causing minor storm levels. The rest of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels with quiet conditions observed on 17 July.

Propagation Forecast up to 13 August

Low levels of solar activity are expected, with a chance of M-Class flares from 5-13 August.

The solar Flux is forecast at high levels from 5-13 August due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remaining forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 minor storm levels 3-4 and 8 august, causing

unsettled to active levels. 

HF propagation is likely to be affected mostly on 3, 4 and 8 August with the possibility of radio black outs. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor Showers

The Perseids are likely to occur on 12-13 August. Details at: http://bit.ly/perseid16

Thanks to Mike Terry for regular updates

July 2016

Propagation Summary

On June 17, the RSGB reported good reception on 6 Metres, but the rest of the HF band has been disturbed by Coronal Hole activity, particularly on 14-15 June.  Sporadic E conditions, however, have produced some good VHF propagation, mainly on the last week in June

Propagation Forecast up to 16 July

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July.  G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  www.swpc.noaa.gov/   See also, Glenn Hauser’s DX Listening digest at: www.worldofradio.com or bit.ly/dxlatest

Meteor showers in July 2016
Piscis Austrinids:  (Southern Hemisphere shower) Active: July 15 - August 10, Maximum: July 28
Southern Aquariids Active: July 12 - August 23. Maximum: July 30
Capricornids:  Active: July 03 - August 15 Maximum: July 30. 

More details can be found at: bit.ly/meteorprop Also thanks to Mike Terry for updates.
See also The DX Program on Mersey Retro Radio. www,merseyretro.com Fridays to Mondays at 1000 UTC.

June 2016

Propagation Summary
April was an interesting month for space weather with storm conditions on 2, and 7  April , caused by a negative magnetic field (usually causing extreme long skip in affected areas) On April 10, 13 and 18th  the disturbances were caused by fast solar winds. On May 2, Negative magnetic activity was again the cause, and then on May 8, a G3 class solar flare caused the disturbance. (spaceweather.com)

Propagation Forecast
Disturbed conditions are expected on June 2-6, 11-13 and 17-18.  The calmest days will be on 7-9 June and also 18th.  Although there have been many storm conditions lately, sunspot numbers are generally lower than forecast, and Solar Cycle 24 could easily die out before the forecast date of early 2019 if this trend continues, resulting in very little activity during 2018-19.
The same applies to the Solar Flux.  Related information can be found at:  goo.gl/rKPHze

Detailed Maximum Usable Frequency charts can be found on the DX Maps site. Where you can also subscribe to email propagation updates: http://bit.ly/1TG6bCM

The Sporadic E propagation season should also take place in June-July.
Thanks to Mike Terry for email updates.  Links to these articles and more can be found at: www.jameswelsh.org.uk