February 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low throughout most of January.  Minor sunspot activity was evident on 10-11 Jan.  The Solar flux reached high levels on 15-19 and 23-25 Jan and moderate levels were observed on 20-22 and 26-28 Jan.
Geomagnetic Field activity reached G1 minor storm levels on Jan14 with isolated active periods observed on 8, 9 and 14 Jan due to coronal Hole High Speed Streams. Generally quiet to unsettled Geomagnetic Field activity was observed for the remainder of the summary period. 

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 11-15 Feb; and normal levels are forecast for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04-05 Feb, 09-11 Feb and 15-17 Feb, all due to influence from recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

Daily UK space weather updates are available at the Met Office website:  http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB  A very useful table of optimal working frequencies using real time data can also be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html

January 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar conditions have been fairly consistent during November with no major solar storms, with the exception o Nov 8-9 when a G2 Solar flare occurred. Calm conditions prevailed until Nov 21 when a G1 flare caused a further minor disturbance followed by a similar event on 4-5 December. There were more disturbed days during December, the biggest one being on Dec 4-5, but things had calmed down by Dec14, but more disturbed conditions returned on 14-21 Dec  and again Dec 26, 29-30th.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 13 January 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period.
The solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 01 Jan, and 07-13 Jan.  High levels are likely on 02-06 Jan. All increases in Solar Flux are anticipated to be due to the expected influence of recurrent Coronal Hole High speed Streams (CH HSSs).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm 01 Jan, and 13 Jan. Active conditions are 02 Jan, and 08 Jan.  Unsettled levels are forecast for 03 Jan and 09 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Quiet conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. http://bit.ly/NOA7Day

November 2017

Propagation Summary
The Solar flux was at moderate levels on 9-11 Oct, Followed by high levels on 12-14 Oct and very high levels on Oct 15. The Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to moderate storm levels on 9-10 Oct, then minor storm levels 11-12, 14 -15 Oct, and moderate levels on Oct 13.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 November
November is expected to start with minor levels of solar activity, followed by high levels from 7-11 Nov, peaking on 9-10 Nov, when the Boulder K index should reach a high of 6.
The Geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to active conditions on 01-02 Nov, and 07-11 Nov, and a G2 Solar Flare should add to this activity on Nov 10.  More unsettled conditions are likely on Nov 15-16 followed by calmer condition until the end of the forecast period. The calmest days in November should be Nov 3-6, 13, and the most unsettled days should be 7-11 and 15 Nov.
4 day space weather forecasts can be found at: http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB

Solar cycle 24
the current solar cycle 24, (the smallest since solar cycle 14 in 1906) has peaked in 2014, and is forecast to come to an end during 2020. Scientists are predicting that sunspot activity could be even lower during solar cycle 25:  http://bit.ly/2y9yxG5
The next propagation report will be in January.

October 2017

Propagation Summary
There has been some strong sunspot activity during September.  On Sep 4-9, minor storm conditions prevailed, followed by more severe storm conditions from 13-19th, peaking on Sep 14-15, when the Boulder k index actually reached 6, which is unusual.  This was followed by minor storm conditions from Sep 24-30. 

Propagation Outlook
October is likely to start with minor to moderate storm conditions, followed by more severe conditions on Oct 12-14. This is due to Coronal Hole high Speed streams resulting in high levels of Solar Flux, plus the Geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active.
In conclusion, the calmer day should be Oct 3-9 and disturbed days should be Oct 11-14.

Solar Cycle 24
The historically weak Solar Cycle 24 continues to transition away towards the next solar minimum.  There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017, and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016.  The next solar minimum will probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.  The current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980.
http://bit.ly/2xMNwnt
Live Usable HF frequency information is available at: http://hfpropagation.com/
A 4 day space weather forecast can be found at the UK Met. Office website: http://bit.ly/2fX7zX1

September 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the second half of August.  Very low levels were observed on 14-15 August. Low levels prevailed on 14-15 August and again on 18-19th, while moderate levels were observed from the 20th.
Perseid meteor showers were observed from 2 August which peaked on 12-13th.
There will have been some interesting DX anomalies in parts of the USA on August 21 during the Solar Eclipse which affected states Oregon to Iowa in a straight line across North America. Ionospheric conditions will have changed partly from day to night time mode for the eclipse’s duration. There will be another similar eclipse in 2024 (eclipse17.com)

Propagation Forecast up to 16 September
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels from 03-07 September with a chance R1and R2 (Minor to Moderate) activity from 08-16 September.
The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels from 01-07 Sep, 11-13 Sep, and again from 15-16 Sep due to recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HHS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 8-9 Sep and 13-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HHS activity.  In conclusion the calmest HF conditions should be on Sep 3-7 and 10-12, and the most disturbed days are likely to be Sep1-2 and 14-16.
(spaceweather.com and http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

August 2017

Propagation Summary
On July 23rd, NASA and European spacecraft observed a massive explosion on the far side of the sun.  A spectacular Coronal Mass Ejection tore through the sun's atmosphere and it now appears to be en route to Mars. Earth will not feel the effects of the blast because of its location on the opposite side of the sun.  However, the source of the eruption will turn back toward our planet in early August, possibly bringing a new round of geomagnetic storms.
(spaceweather.com via Mike Terry)

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the return of the Coronal Mass ejection from 23 July as it rotates towards Earth.  Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to range from normal to high levels.  The influence of recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams is expected to cause high levels from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug.  Moderate levels are expected on 30-31 Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.
Quiet to minor storm levels are likely on 05 Aug.  Quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul and 17-18 Aug.  Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and 19 Aug.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the multiple, recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.  http://bit.ly/2tQYFTX

July 2017

Propagation Summary
During the second half of June, there were 2 minor disturbances, the first one being on 19-22 June, caused by an earth directed G1 class solar flare, and another similar event occurred on 25-27 June. The remainder of June has been quiet to unsettled.

Propagation Forecast until 15 July.
Propagation conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until July 13-14, when a major event is forecast. The planetary 'A' index is likely to jump from 5 to 20 during this event, which is likely to cause major disturbances to HF communications. 

Solar cycle 25 is forecast to start during 2020 and according to forecasts, solar activity is likely to be even lower than it has been during the current solar cycle.  Average sunspot numbers are currently around the 20 mark, (much lower that the forecasted number of 50). http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/  There is also a long explanation at: https://goo.gl/uLmC2X

Related articles can also be found at: https://goo.gl/2R91oj  Detailed maps of current solar events can also be found at: http://www.bandconditions.com  and at: https://goo.gl/Qb7kjD

June 2017

Propagation Summary
There have been some major solar storms, notably on 18 April when an old sunspot, after a 2 week trip around the sun exploded, producing a C5-class solar flare and hurling a spectacularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. The massive cloud of hot plasma missed Earth.
May started out fairly quiet but conditions were disturbed on 16-22 may, especially on and around 19 May when the Boulder K index unusually peaked at 6. Quite conditions have prevailed at the end of May. From NOAA: http://bit.ly/2mps53V

Propagation Forecast
June should start off with quiet to unsettled conditions with disturbed conditions expected on 10-11 June and on Jun 25 until the end of the forecast period. The average sunspot numbers are below the predicted levels and we head towards the end of solar cycle 24.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Daily UK space weather updates can now be found at the Met Office website:
Met office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/space-weather/

April 2017

Propagation Summary
The Geomagnetic field was disturbed on March 1 – 2, quiet to active on March 3 – 6. Mostly quiet on March 7, and quiet on March 8 – 9. 
The Boulder A, and K indices were at their lowest on March 7 to 11. Solar flux was at 72 on March 5 to 7.  Calm conditions prevailed until 15-16 March, a slight increase in solar wind speed was observed. This was likely due to a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 16 March.   The greater solar flux was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 13-15 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels through most of the period.  On 15-16 March, a slight increase in solar wind speed was observed. This was likely due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). . The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 16 March.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 15 April 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period. 
The greater solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 24 March and again from 29 March - 11 April due to recurrent CHHSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 28 March - 06 April. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23, 28-31 March and 02 April while G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 28-29 March due to recurrent CH HSS effects.  BDXC member Martin J Reynolds has been conducting experiments with DRM with reception of R. Romania Int. on 7350 kHz at 18.00-19.00 UTC daily and this should also be interesting for comparison with analogue reception.  The next propagation report will be in June.

March 2017

Propagation Summary

Solar activity reached low levels on 09 Feb due to C-class flare activity on 10 Feb. Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the remainder of the period and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. 

The solar flux reached high levels each day of this period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 06 Feb, quiet to unsettled levels on 07, 10-11 Feb, and quiet throughout the remainder of the period.

Propagation Forecast until 18 March

The Geomagnetic field will be disturbed on March 1 – 2, quiet to active on March 3 – 6.

Mostly quiet on March 7, and quiet on March 8 – 9.

The Boulder A, and K indices will be at their lowest on March 7 to 11.

Solar flux will be at 72 on March 5 to 7.  Calm conditions will prevail until March 16 when disturbed conditions will peak and things should start to level off by March 18.

(https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/list27do.html)

February 2017

Propagation Summary

The first week in January features zero sunspots, but between Jan 12-18, the average daily sunspot number rose to 22.6. Solar activity was at low levels due to C Class solar flares on 21-22 January. The rest of the period was at very low levels.  No earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed. The solar flux was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on Jan 16-17, and 20-22 January.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Early on 18 January, solar wind speed began to increase as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became effective.   Wind speed reached a maximum gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 16-17 January, quiet to active levels on 18-19 and 21 January, and quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 22 January.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 14-18 February. Very low levels are expected on 01-13 February.  

The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 01-13 February, and again on 16-18 February due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01-07 February and 14-18 February with minor geomagnetic storm levels likely on 3 February due to CH HSS effects.  The most disturbed days for propagation in February are likely to be 1-5 and 14^th.
Updates are available at: http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

January 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was generally at ‘background’ levels during the second half of December, although the Solar flux reached high levels on 12-17 December, followed by moderate levels from 18 December.
The Geomagnetic Field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during December, with the exception of the 12th when solar Winds increased, but quite conditions prevailed for the remainder of December.

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance of C Class Solar flares during the forecast period.
The Solar flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels until January 14th, then at higher levels from 16-19 January with possible storm conditions.

Geomagnetic field will be quiet to active on January 6 – 7, active to disturbed on December 21 - 22, January 4 – 5 and quiet on January 10 – 11.
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 2 – 7.
From: Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, Czech Propagation Interested Group via http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Sunspot numbers have been on a steep downward trend during the second half of 2016.  There have been a total of 32 spotless days.  During December sunspot numbers have dropped to 20, compared to the forecast level of 45.  These are the lowest levels since 2010.  The current Solar Cycle number 24 is forecast to start in 2020, peaking in 2025.  There is now a new method of calculating sunspot numbers which was introduced in 2015, and it results in less peaking on the prediction charts.  More information can be found at: http://bit.ly/2hBFp55

December 2016

Propagation Summary
on 07 Oct Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on Oct 10-11, 16-18.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled to active 03-05 Oct. A minor storm was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with unsettled and active periods 07 and 08 Oct. The enhanced activity was due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled conditions prevailed 11-18 October
Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.   The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov, increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. A lesser disturbance is likely on 11-12 November.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 
The quietest days, propagation –wise are likely to be November 2-10.  http://bit.ly/27dayprop

Meteor Showers 
November 4-5 2016, South Taurids, November 11-12 2016 North Taurids, November 16-17, 2016 Leonids. December 13-14, 2016 Geminids.  http://bit.ly/meteor16
The next propagation report will be in January.  Regular updates are posted on the BDXC News email group via Mike Terry. You can also subscribe to email alerts here: http://bit.ly/Propalert

November 2016

Propagation Summary

on 07 Oct Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on Oct 10-11, 16-18.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled to active 03-05 Oct. A minor storm was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with unsettled and active periods 07 and 08 Oct. The enhanced activity was due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled conditions prevailed 11-18 October

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.   The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov, increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. A lesser disturbance is likely on 11-12 November.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.  

The quietest days, propagation –wise are likely to be November 2-10.  http://bit.ly/27dayprop

Meteor Showers 

November 4-5 2016, South Taurids, November 11-12 2016 North Taurids, November 16-17, 2016 Leonids. December 13-14, 2016 Geminids.  http://bit.ly/meteor16

The next propagation report will be in January.  Regular updates are posted on the BDXC News email group via Mike Terry. You can also subscribe to email alerts here: http://bit.ly/Propalert

October 2016

Propagation Summary
September started off with fairly quiet conditions with minor disturbances around 4-7, 13, 19 and 20th.   September 28-30th were the most disturbed days of the month with the Solar Flux reaching 95 and the Boulder K index peaking at 6.   This was due to high solar wind enhancements associated with coronal Hole High Speed Streams.

Propagation Forecast up to 15 October
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares over the period. 
The Solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams.
Solar flux levels are expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 1 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.  Active conditions are expected on 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period. The quietest days should be October 7-15. ( http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

Meteor Showers.
There are some minor meteor showers forecast: October 7, the Draconids and October 21, before dawn, the Orionids.   http://bit.ly/meteor16

September 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally at low levels from August 15-21, but disturbed conditions prevailed on 24-29.  The Solar Flux was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, and normal levels on 18 August.  The largest flux of the period was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, then normal levels on 18 August. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period observed on 21 August.

Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar wind regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased, then Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20.  The geomagnetic field returned to active levels on 21 August.

Propagation Forecast Up to 17 September

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from August, 29-08 September, 13-14 September, and again on 17 September.  Most disturbed days are likely to be

August 29 –September 6 (Peaking on August 30-31) then relatively calm conditions should prevail from the September 9-17, with the possible exception of slight disturbances on 8, 13 and 17 September.  https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/list27do.html