February 2017

Propagation Summary

The first week in January features zero sunspots, but between Jan 12-18, the average daily sunspot number rose to 22.6. Solar activity was at low levels due to C Class solar flares on 21-22 January. The rest of the period was at very low levels.  No earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed. The solar flux was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on Jan 16-17, and 20-22 January.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Early on 18 January, solar wind speed began to increase as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became effective.   Wind speed reached a maximum gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 16-17 January, quiet to active levels on 18-19 and 21 January, and quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 22 January.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 14-18 February. Very low levels are expected on 01-13 February.  

The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 01-13 February, and again on 16-18 February due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01-07 February and 14-18 February with minor geomagnetic storm levels likely on 3 February due to CH HSS effects.  The most disturbed days for propagation in February are likely to be 1-5 and 14^th.
Updates are available at: http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6