February 2019

Propagation Summary
January started off with very low levels of solar activity increasing to low levels on Jan 6 due to an isolated C1 flare.  Very low levels returned until 24-25 Jan

The Solar flux was at normal levels on 1-4 Jan increasing to high levels on 6-10 Jan due to the C1 flare then moderate levels prevailed until 13 Jan. Another similar event occurred on 24-25 Jan followed by moderate levels...

The Geomagnetic Field was at quiet to G1 minor storm levels until 5 Jan when minor storm levels were observed returning to quiet to unsettled levels by 6 Jan, followed by quiet levels on 8-10 Jan.  The Solar wind increased on 11 Jan and by 12 Jan levels were quiet.  Solar wind then increased on 24-25 Jan producing a G1 magnetic storm. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected until the end of January

Propagation Forecast until 16 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period. 
The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 28 Jan-01Feb and 07-16 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 02-06 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active on 31 Jan-03 Feb due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity Coronal Hole High speed Stream. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at predominately quiet levels.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

January 2019

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally very low during late November with the Solar Flux at background levels, and the Geomagnetic Field ranged from quiet to unsettled.

A B type Solar Flare was forecast on 5 December but this did not materialise. There was also minor sunspot activity with a B1 flare on 14 Decembe5, and then conditions remained quiet for the remainder of December

The Solar flux was high on 6 and 8-9 Dec followed by normal levels until high levels were reached on 10 Dec conditions followed by quiet conditions.

The Geomagnetic Field was generally quiet to unsettled except on 10-11 followed by mainly quiet conditions

Propagation Forecast until January 19

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels on 8-12 Jan with moderate levels forecast for 3-5 Jan. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 4 Jan due to Coronal Hole High Speed streams. Quiet to unsettled or generally quiet conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Propagation conditions should generally remain the same as December with possible variations on 4 and 16 January.   http://bit.ly/dxlatest

November 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low during October, apart from minor sunspot activity on 12-14 October with no earth directed coronal mass ejections observed..

The solar flux reached high levels on 08-13 and 16-20 Oct with moderate levels observed during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10 and 13 Oct, active conditions on 08-09 Oct, unsettled levels on 11 Oct, and quiet conditions on 12 and 14 and 15 Oct due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity followed by quiet conditions.

Propagation Forecast until 17 November

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-09 and 12-16 Nov with moderate flux levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03-04 Nov with active levels expected on 05-06 Nov due to the influence of recurrent Coronal Hole high speed streams.

Latest updates can be found at the NOAA website: http://bit.ly/NOA7Day

October2018

Propagation Summary
A strong and unexpected G3-class geomagnetic storm occurred during the early hours of August 26th. The storm may have been caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME).  This caused radio blackouts in some parts of the world and visible auroras in parts of the USA.  This continued over the August bank Holiday weekend in the UK. Low levels were then observed with the exception of a strong flare on Sep11  ( spaceweather,com )

The solar flux at was at very high levels on 28-29 Aug and at high levels on 27 Aug, 30-31Aug and 01-08 Sep). High levels were reached on 12-16 Sep following moderate levels 10-11 Sep. Conditions then ranged from quiet to moderate until sep16 with the exception of 1416 Sep due to a moderate storm.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to G1and G2 storm levels on 27 Aug followed by unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug. Quiet levels persisted on 29 Aug - 02 Sep.  By midday on 28 Aug, field activity declined to quiet levels until 9 Sep with a minor disturbance on 5 and 7 Sep.

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.
The solar flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in solar flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate)storm levels. G2 (Moderate)storm levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 storm levels are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.  http://bit.ly/2Mv2RSH

September2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was mostly very low throughout August.
This was only very minor flare activity occurring on 14-19 August with little significant affect.

The solar flux was mainly at normal levels, except on 16-17 August where moderate levels were observed.  On 18-19 August, levels were high. 

Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Solar winds was at normal levels with the exception of  15-19 August due to a Coronal Hole High speed stream (CH HSS) moving towards an effective position, but levels returned to normal buy 19 August when conditions were quiet.

Propagation Forecast until 15 September
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. The Solar flux is expected to reach high levels 13-15 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 03-04 Sep, 07 Sep, and 11-15 Sep with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-21 Aug, again due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

The Parker Solar Probe
On 11 August, the Parker Solar Probe was launched.   The project is to study how Solar winds occur and to achieve more accurate prediction of their affect on the earth’s Ionosphere and terrestrial weather etc. More information can be found at:  http://bit.ly/2Mv2RSH

August 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low throughout most of July. 
The solar flux was at moderate to normal levels with some moderate sunspot activity on 9-11 July, 13-17 July and also on 2-22 July.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with several periods of unsettled observed on 11-12, 16-17 and 20-21 July.

Propagation Forecast until 18 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels 01-11, and 18 Aug. Normal levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to produce active conditions on 17 Aug due to the influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor showers

The Perseid Meteor showers are forecast from 17 July until 24 August, and will peak on the night between August 12 and August 13.  http://bit.ly/2vb7dTv

July 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was mostly at very low levels during June. The solar disk was spotless from 06-10 Jun.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during June. 

The Solar flux reached high levels on 11-13 Jun and decreased to moderate levels on 14- 22 June, and high levels were reached on 24 June in response to an enhanced solar wind environment.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active with a G1 minor storm period observed on 18-19 Jun followed by quiet to unsettled conditions for the remainder of June

Propagation forecast until 21 July

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels from 29 Jun - 10 Jul.  Very low levels are also expected from 11 July with a chance of C-class flare activity, through the remainder of the outlook period.

The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 28 Jun - 10 July, due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams (CH HSS), for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 15 Jul and 20-21 Jul following minor storms 27-28 Jun, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  https://bit.ly/2KsGj3l

June 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low throughout May and no earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed, which would have resulted in long skip and possible radio blackouts at times.

The solar flux reached very high levels on 9-11, 13-14 May and high levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 07-09, 11-12 May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole/high speed solar wind stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 May, and conditions remained mostly quiet to unsettled for the rest of the period

Propagation forecast up to 16 June
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.
The solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 June with high levels expected on 02-04 and 08-13 June.   Moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 02 June and G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 01 June due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream.  Active conditions are expected on 03-05 June.  https://bit.ly/2IMswQP

April 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low during the second half of March. There were some minor disturbances on 15-17 march, but there were no earth directed Coronal Mass ejections during the period.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on 16-18 March. Normal levels were observed on 12-15 March.  Geomagnetic field activity reached Moderate storm levels on 18 March and active levels on 14-17 March due to the influence of a negative polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the rest of the period

Propagation Forecast up to 14 April
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
The solar flux is expected to be high levels on 12-14 April.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the period.  Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 12 April with active periods likely on 11, 13-14 April, due to effects of multiple recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.  https://goo.gl/cVudzs

Equinox Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Field
Cracks are opening in Earth's magnetic field.  Researchers have long known that during weeks around equinoxes, openings form in Earth's magnetosphere.   Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Arctic lights. Even a gentle gust of solar wind can breach our planet's magnetic defences.  The cracks are opened by the solar wind itself.  South-pointing magnetic fields inside the solar wind oppose Earth's north-pointing magnetic field.
The two, (North Versus South), partially cancel one another, weakening our planet's magnetic defences. Theoretically, this could affect HF propagation. 
(SARL via Mike Terry, WOR\DXLD)  https://goo.gl/E4QEvj

March 2018

Propagation Summary
A C1 Solar Flare occurred on 10 Feb.  Solar activity was at low levels on 12 Feb and very low levels on 13-18 Feb.  However, data from the SOHO Observatory suggests that the Solar flare on Feb10 never arrived at earth until Feb 15, which apparently reduced the affect normally associated with such flares.

The Solar Flux was at background levels on 12-16 Feb and increased to moderate levels on 17
Feb followed by high levels on 18 Feb due to negative polarity effects from a coronal Hole Mass Ejection

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 12-14 Feb.  On 15 Feb, arrival of the 12 Feb CME produced only one active period during the day.
Active levels were reached again on 17 and 18 Feb in response to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds also increased on 18 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 17 March 2018
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook period.
The Solar Flux, having been at high levels up to 25 Feb, will decrease to normal levels until the end of the forecast period.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 04 March and 15 March, with quiet to active levels expected on 14 March and 16-17 March, as multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streamss are anticipated to become effective. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6 

Long range solar forecasts by NASA suggest that solar Cycle 25, (peaking around the year 2022) will be the weakest solar cycle in centuries. https://go.nasa.gov/2F2afjK