September 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally at low levels from August 15-21, but disturbed conditions prevailed on 24-29.  The Solar Flux was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, and normal levels on 18 August.  The largest flux of the period was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, then normal levels on 18 August. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period observed on 21 August.

Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar wind regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased, then Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20.  The geomagnetic field returned to active levels on 21 August.

Propagation Forecast Up to 17 September

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from August, 29-08 September, 13-14 September, and again on 17 September.  Most disturbed days are likely to be

August 29 –September 6 (Peaking on August 30-31) then relatively calm conditions should prevail from the September 9-17, with the possible exception of slight disturbances on 8, 13 and 17 September.  https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/list27do.html