October '09

Propagation Forecast
There has actually been some noticeable sunspot activity during September with the Solar flux climbing from the usual 72 to 77, on the 26th where it will remain until 5th October, when it will actually drop down to 69, followed by another rise to at least 74 by the 19th October. If this 20 day trend continues, we should see another peak by early November. The Boulder A index has remained at a steady 5 but has suddenly peaked at 12 on 26 September but settled back to 5 by the 12th. The Boulder K index has remained at 2 but also peaked at 4 on 26th September and again settled back to the ‘norm’ of 2 by the end of September. (WM7d.net). According to the solar charts at http://www.solarcycle24.com the average sunspot numbers will continue to remain at ‘floor level’ during the first quarter of 2010. HF signal path propagation tables can be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html

Solar Weather Predictions
The NW7US Space Weather\Propagation Podcast. No sunspots by 2015?
In this episode, Amateur Radio Operator, Tomas David Hood (NW7US) discusses with Dr. Penn of the National Solar Observatory the startling yet convincing trend revealed in research of magnetic strengths of sunspots over the last thirteen years. The trend indicates a strong possibility, if the trend continues, that sunspots will disappear by the year 2015! Click Here. You can also access previous podcasts at: http://podcast.hfradio.org/ .

“In 2012, The Sun will be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, called "solar maximum", so we can expect a lot of solar activity. Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 (remember all those record breaking X-class flares?). Solar physicists are already getting excited about this next cycle and new prediction methods are being put to good use.
An earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there, but let's have a look at what really happens during an Earth-directed solar flare event. The Earth is actually very well protected, although some satellites may not be.
The Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth may be unlucky enough to be staring down the barrel of an explosion with the energy of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar flare and the effects of which can cause problems here on earth.”
(From: http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/21/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/ )

There is another website by Patrick Geryl which forecasts a disastrous solar storm in 2012! http://www.howtosurvive2012.com

Solar Data Used To Forecast Weather on Earth
Terrestrial weather forecasts using Solar Data are now available on the internet. The technique uses predictable aspects of solar activity - particle and magnetic effects from the Sun - as the basis for forecasting weather many months and even years in advance. Weather Action long-range forecasts are produced using Piers Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique which he says is “the most advanced and reliable long-range forecasting system in the world.” Forecasts can be downloaded for a fee but previous forecasts are available in their archive at: http://www.weatheraction.com