February 2012

Propagation Summary
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 96 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 96 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 January - 20 February 2012 Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely until Regions 1401 and 1402 depart on 28 January. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remained of the period. Protons greater than 10 MeV remained above event threshold on 25 - 26 January. A return to background levels is expected for the remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire period. The geomagnetic field is was at active to minor storm levels on 25 January as effects from the CME from 23 January waned. Quiet levels returned on 26 and 27 January as a coronal hole high speed stream (CHHSS) became geoeffecitve. A return to quiet levels is expected until 02 - 03 February, with quiet to unsettled levels expected as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from 04-08 February. Another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective with quiet to unsettled levels expected from 09-10 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt

Sunspot 1402 produced a major X1.7 Solar Flare on 27 January at 18:37 UTC. An R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted, which led to the fading of HF signals on the sunlit side of Earth. The proton levels are on the rise again and the Moderate S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been reached. A video of the solar flare is on line at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uwojBpajIg&feature=player_embedded

Solar Conditions by Steve Nichols
Good solar conditions continue and we seem to have gone through quite a long period of settled geomagnetic conditions, which has helped no end. The solar flux index has hovered around the 130 mark with no really large fluctuations and as a result we are still seeing the higher bands come to life, notably 10m. But this is really the month for good low-band openings - 160m, 80m an 40m. Tony G3ZRJ reported hearing long delay echoes on 80m at about 2100z on 1st January 2012. These are either signals coming around the world "the wrong way", or aided by magnetospheric ducting, or some other form of propagation that we don't really understand. Whatever, it makes for some interesting effects. http://g0kya.blogspot.com
There is an article about Long Delay echoes (LDE’s) by radio ham Chris Codella at: http://www.w2pa.com/Home/articles/80m-echo-observations

Understanding LF and HF Propagation. (Free Ebook)
In 2008/2009, Alan Melia (G3NYK) and Steve Nichols (G0KYA) wrote a series of features on understanding LF and HF propagation for the RSGB "RadCom" magazine. The book can be downloaded in PDF format at: http://www.infotechcomms.co.uk/Understanding_LF_and_HF_propagation.pdf

Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates