November 2012

Propagation Summary

During the second half of October, solar activity ranged from low to high levels.  Activity was low during 15-19 October, due to mostly low-level ‘C’ class flares, the largest one being on the 17^th.  Activity increased to high levels on 20 October.  Activity increased to high levels on 20 October due to an impulsive M9 flare and a coronal mass ejection, but conditions returned to moderate levels by the 21^st.  Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels early on 15 October, then decreased to quiet levels for the rest of the period.  

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity  Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during 22 October - 02 November with M-class flare activity likely.  Activity is expected to decrease to low levels during 03 – 17 November. However, there will be a chance for M-class flare activity beginning 15 November.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 22 - 23 October with a slight chance for active levels, due to a coronal hole.  Quiet levels are then expected during 24 October - 07 November. An increase to unsettled levels is expected on 08, and 09 November, then quiter conditions are likely to prevail by from November 11^th. 

The Grand Solar Cycle

During a Horizon programme called ‘Global Wierding’  Dr Mark Lockwood came up with a theory that there is actually a grand solar cycle which occurs approximately every 300 years.  This coincides with the ‘Maunder Minimum’ period which occurred in 1645-1715, and could explain the quiet solar condition we have experienced in recent years.  More about this period can be found at:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum   The 11 year solar cycle apparently is equal to a ‘sun year’.   More information at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/SolarMax.pdf

The next propagation report will be in January.  Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Milke Terry for your contributions during 2012

October 2012

Propagation Summary 

Solar activity was at low levels during most of September.  A type II Radio Sweep occurred at and was associated with a non-Earth directed Coronal mass ejection.

Solar flux was at high levels on 10 and 12 September. Moderate levels were observed on 11 September and again from 13 - 16 September. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period with two isolated unsettled periods on 12 September and 15 September.  

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for moderate activity during the first half of October.  The solar flux at is expected to be at high levels from 07-09 October.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with

active conditions possible on 03-05, 09-10, and 12-13 October. The active conditions are mainly associated with coronal hole high speed streams. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt 

Sunspot Activity is increasing

Sunspot activity has increased during 2010-11.  There have been no spotless days so far during 2012.   2011 had only 2 spotless days, 2010 had 51 and 2009 had a total of 260 spotless days.  However, monthly sunspot numbers are still around the 70 mark, following the sharp drop during early 2012.  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

September 2012

Propagation Summary

During the second half of August, Solar activity has been at very low to high levels. Two active sunspot regions dominated from 13 August, with multiple C-class solar flares.   Many of these events were associated with discrete radio frequency bursts.  On 17 August, 5 more M class solar flares were observed, but not all were directed towards earth.  Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to active levels throughout this period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 August - 15 September 2012

A return to predominantly low levels is expected to prevail from 01-15 September. Following an increase to high flux levels on 22-26 August, a return to normal background levels is expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels, except for 9, 10 and 15 September when the effects of a recurrent coronal hole may cause quite to unsettled conditions. From:  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt  

NZ4O "Daily" Propagation Forecast

Thomas Giella has announced that his NZ4O Medium Frequency, High Frequency and 6 Meter Radio Wave Propagation Forecast is now published on a 'daily' basis. It can be found on line at: www.solarcycle24.org and www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm   . Thomas notes that each new edition will be available at around 1300 UTC, but that there will be no daily e-mail notice about its being posted. Just check the websites for the daily updates. (Via Mike Terry).

Solar Cycle comparison Chart
Solar cycle 24 has displayed much less activity than recent cycles.  The monthly smoothed sunspot number could peak between 50 and 70 in 2013. Models based on solar polar magnetic field strength indicate the peak could occur as early as in 2012.  A comparison chart showing solar cycles 21 to 24 can be found at: http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html

 

 

 

 

August 2012

Propagation Summary

Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels during late July.  Highest activity occurred on the 19^th with an M7 flare and a partial halo coronal mass ejection.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Activity on 16 July began at major storm levels and decreased to unsettled levels as the day passed. Quieter to unsettled conditions followed by the 20^th.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

The first half of August will see very low solar activity, but with a slight chance of major flare activity from 30 July to 13 August. The Solar flux is expected to be normal to moderate and on 3-5 august and on 11-15.  Higher levels could prevail on 6010 August.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods up to 20^th August.

Solar cycle Prediction

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. 

Meteor showers

Perseid Meteor showers are forecast from 30 July-18 August, peaking on 12-13^th.
http://www.radio-electronics.com/info/propagation/meteor-scatter-

 

 

June 2011

Propagation Summary

Solar conditions continued to look dismal, although the solar flux did get up to 149 on 21st April.   May marked the start of the Sporadic E season in the Northern Hemisphere so 28MHz and 50MHz will be humming at times. This rather suggests that F layer propagation on 28MHz is non-existent.  Not so - the 706T Amateur Radio DXpedition to Yemen has been romping in to the UK on 10m CW during early May. Not terribly loud, but definitely workable. (Steve Nichols http://g0kya.blogspot.co.uk/ )

Solar Maximum is forecast for May 2013

Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. The panel decided that the solar cycle 24 will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/ 

Propagation Forecast Up to 16 June

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares through 31 May and again from 14 June through the end of the forecast period.  
Low to moderate levels are expected from 31 May through 13 June.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to active on 22 - 23 May as the arrival of the 18 May Coronal Mass Ejection and a coronal hole high speed stream become active. Quiet to active conditions are also expected on 06 - 09 June as another coronal hole high speed stream moves into an active position. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected until at least mid June.

April 2012

Propagation Summary.
Predominantly quiet levels are expected to prevail from 21-27 March. On 28 - 31 March, quiet to
active conditions are expected. Quiet conditions are also expected from 01 - 02 April.
From 03 - 04 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, and then quiet levels should prevail from 05 - 12 April, then from 13-14 April, quiet to unsettled conditions should return. A
more detailed forecast can be found at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt
The recent solar storms have been in the news during March, and activity will increase during 2012, as we approach the peak of Solar cycle 24. A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms
of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. “This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Centre.
“It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”
(NASA Science News 22 March 2012)
In terms of propagation, this will usually cause a blackout of HF signals by bringing the ionospheric layers closer to the earth and severely reducing the hop that we normally rely on to receive HF signals at a distance. However, in theory, it could enable you to receive HF signals closer to home which would not normally be receivable. Many of these solar storms are on the far side of the sun but these recent storms were directed towards earth. Depending upon which side of the earth is being affected, propagation could vary considerably, so these are interesting times, as far as propagation is concerned.

April Meteor Showers
Lyrid Meteor Showers are forecast from 19-24 April, peaking on the 21st. Details at: http://www.radio-electronics.com/info/propagation/meteor-scatter-burst-communications/meteors-showers-types.php
Links to all articles at www.jameswelsh.org.uk).
Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates.

February 2012

Propagation Summary
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 96 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 96 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 January - 20 February 2012 Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely until Regions 1401 and 1402 depart on 28 January. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remained of the period. Protons greater than 10 MeV remained above event threshold on 25 - 26 January. A return to background levels is expected for the remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire period. The geomagnetic field is was at active to minor storm levels on 25 January as effects from the CME from 23 January waned. Quiet levels returned on 26 and 27 January as a coronal hole high speed stream (CHHSS) became geoeffecitve. A return to quiet levels is expected until 02 - 03 February, with quiet to unsettled levels expected as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from 04-08 February. Another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective with quiet to unsettled levels expected from 09-10 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt

Sunspot 1402 produced a major X1.7 Solar Flare on 27 January at 18:37 UTC. An R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted, which led to the fading of HF signals on the sunlit side of Earth. The proton levels are on the rise again and the Moderate S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been reached. A video of the solar flare is on line at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uwojBpajIg&feature=player_embedded

Solar Conditions by Steve Nichols
Good solar conditions continue and we seem to have gone through quite a long period of settled geomagnetic conditions, which has helped no end. The solar flux index has hovered around the 130 mark with no really large fluctuations and as a result we are still seeing the higher bands come to life, notably 10m. But this is really the month for good low-band openings - 160m, 80m an 40m. Tony G3ZRJ reported hearing long delay echoes on 80m at about 2100z on 1st January 2012. These are either signals coming around the world "the wrong way", or aided by magnetospheric ducting, or some other form of propagation that we don't really understand. Whatever, it makes for some interesting effects. http://g0kya.blogspot.com
There is an article about Long Delay echoes (LDE’s) by radio ham Chris Codella at: http://www.w2pa.com/Home/articles/80m-echo-observations

Understanding LF and HF Propagation. (Free Ebook)
In 2008/2009, Alan Melia (G3NYK) and Steve Nichols (G0KYA) wrote a series of features on understanding LF and HF propagation for the RSGB "RadCom" magazine. The book can be downloaded in PDF format at: http://www.infotechcomms.co.uk/Understanding_LF_and_HF_propagation.pdf

Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates