April 2013

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low to moderate during late March. Low activity dominated the week with low level C-class flares observed on 18-20 and 23-24 March.  The Solar Flux was mostly low, increasing to moderate levels on 18-20 March.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. The period began with mostly quiet conditions.  An increase to quiet to active levels was observed on 21 March due to effects from two Coronal Mass Ejections. (CME’s) on 17 March. Quiet conditions prevailed for the remainder of the period with the exception of an isolated active period at the close of 23 March.

This increase in activity was possibly related to the weak CME observed on 19 March.

 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 20 April 2013

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the period. A slight chance for M-class flare activity is possible from 01-13. High levels of activity are expected from 29 March-04 April due to recurrent Coronal Hole high speed stream.   A return to normal to moderate levels is expected for the remainder of the period.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin the period at mostly quiet levels. Quiet to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods are expected on 28-30 March.

 

Solar Cycle 24 Progression

The Solar Cycle 24 progression charts show that the average sunspot numbers continue to remain well below estimated levels.  The last major peak was in late 2011 which gave an average sunspot number of 95.  This figure dropped to around 30 in early 2012, but is now around the 55 mark. This is one of the most uneventful solar cycles since records began.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

 

Lyrid Meteor Showers

On April 18-15, there a major Lyrid meteor shower is forecast.  For details of how meteor scatter works, here is a link to an article: http://www.qsl.net/g3wzt/g3wzt_ms.html