June 2013

Propagation Summary

Solar activity reached high levels during the second half of May, in fact the highest levels of activity since 2013 began.  Between 13 and 14 May, newly-numbered Region 1748 produced 2 flares, producing several radio emissions.  Solar activity remained at high levels on 15 May, but activity declined to moderate levels on 16 May with a single M1 Flare.  Moderate levels continued through 17 May and low levels of activity prevailed until a M5 Coronal Mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on May 24th at around 1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor to major storm levels on 20 May in response to the 17 May coronal mass ejection.  More information about Solar Flare classes can be found at: http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 15 June 2013

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the forecast period. High levels of activity are possible on 25 May and again after 7 June.  The Solar flux is expected to be at high levels from 24-31 May associated with a recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream.  In the absence of any Earth-directed coronal mass ejections, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be characterized by quiet to unsettled levels of activity with the possible exception of 28 May, when another Coronal Hole high speed stream brings active levels.  Daily updates are available at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt

 

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the autumn of 2013.  The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011, so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml