February 2020

Propagation Summary

Following quite conditions in December, sunspots appeared on December 24-26. On January 2 NOAA reported  a new sunspot, but this appears to be part of Solar Cycle 24.  No major events have been reported until Jan 26

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mainly very low with a slight chance for C class solar flare activity. 

The solar flux is expected to reach 72 from Jan 26 to Feb 7 and 72 on Feb 8-16 .

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-05 Feb in response to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream influence followed by similar conditions for the rest of the outlook period. (ARRL.org)

 The NOAA/NASA international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus is a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7^th longest on record (11.4 years).