June2020

Propagation Summary

The month of May started with very low solar activity.  There were some minor non-earth directed coronal Mass Ejections at the end of April, which had faded by May 8 followed by mainly quiet conditions until 29 May when an M1 solar Flare occurred at 0724 UTC.

The solar flux was mainly at normal to moderate levels during May,

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of isolated unsettled periods observed on 06 and 10 May. https://bit.ly/2wLPiHV

Solar cycle 25 News

“925 days. That is the amount of time we had to wait since we last saw an M-class solar flare on the Sun.  But on 29 May an impulsive M1.19 solar flare (minor R1 radio blackout) took place on the Sun 07:24 UTC. This is the first M-class solar flare from a sunspot region belonging to Solar Cycle 25 and could even be the first M-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 depending if we have passed solar minimum or not.”  More information is available at:  www.SpaceWeatherLive.com

plus, you can also join the Space Weather Live group on Facebook.

Propagation Forecast until 20 June

Apart from an M1 solar flare on 29 May, Solar activity is expected to continue at predominantly very low levels.

The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to isolated unsettled levels through the outlook period.  My new web address for propagation links is: www.jameswelsh.me

April 2020

Propagation April 2020

Solar activity was generally very low during March.  No earth directed CME’s were observed during the reporting period.   The solar Flux reached moderate levels each day of the period.

Geomagnetic activity reached active levels on 19 March with unsettled levels 16. 18 to 22 March in response to Coronal High Speed Streams (CHSS) influence.

Quiet conditions were observed from 17 March

Propagation Forecast until 18 April

Lyrrid Meteor Showers are due from 13-29 April, peaking at 21-22 April and are said to be the top 5 for meteor shower propagation on the 2-6 meter bans https://bit.ly3bsiLJy

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.  The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels throughout the period in response to recurrent CH HSS influence

Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels on 27 March and 15 April, with unsettled conditions anticipated for 27-29 March and 15-18 April, due to CH HSS effects.  Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period   https://biy.ly2wLPiHY

March 2020

Propagation Summary

The sun has been blank (no sunspots for 36 consecutive days.  This is a sign that that solar minimum is still underway despite recent signs of life from Solar Cycle 25.  During Solar Minimum, auroras are confined mainly to the Arctic.    The next episode will have occurred on 2-3 March, when a minor stream of solar wind reached earth.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

The NOAA/ NASA solar prediction panel predicts solar minimum to occurring in April 2020 (+/+ six months.  The panel agreed that cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to solar cycle 24 with a peak on July 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115 which would make Solar cycle 25 very similar to solar cycles 24.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on 29 Feb to 2 March due to a minor stream of solar wind.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely until 18-2 o March when another minor event is forecast.

The Geomagnetic field is forecast to be at quiet to active levels on 1-2 March followed by quiet to unsettled conditions until March 18-20 when quiet to active conditions are likely.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

February 2020

Propagation Summary

Following quite conditions in December, sunspots appeared on December 24-26. On January 2 NOAA reported  a new sunspot, but this appears to be part of Solar Cycle 24.  No major events have been reported until Jan 26

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mainly very low with a slight chance for C class solar flare activity. 

The solar flux is expected to reach 72 from Jan 26 to Feb 7 and 72 on Feb 8-16 .

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-05 Feb in response to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream influence followed by similar conditions for the rest of the outlook period. (ARRL.org)

 The NOAA/NASA international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus is a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7^th longest on record (11.4 years).