June2020

Propagation Summary

The month of May started with very low solar activity.  There were some minor non-earth directed coronal Mass Ejections at the end of April, which had faded by May 8 followed by mainly quiet conditions until 29 May when an M1 solar Flare occurred at 0724 UTC.

The solar flux was mainly at normal to moderate levels during May,

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of isolated unsettled periods observed on 06 and 10 May. https://bit.ly/2wLPiHV

Solar cycle 25 News

“925 days. That is the amount of time we had to wait since we last saw an M-class solar flare on the Sun.  But on 29 May an impulsive M1.19 solar flare (minor R1 radio blackout) took place on the Sun 07:24 UTC. This is the first M-class solar flare from a sunspot region belonging to Solar Cycle 25 and could even be the first M-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 depending if we have passed solar minimum or not.”  More information is available at:  www.SpaceWeatherLive.com

plus, you can also join the Space Weather Live group on Facebook.

Propagation Forecast until 20 June

Apart from an M1 solar flare on 29 May, Solar activity is expected to continue at predominantly very low levels.

The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to isolated unsettled levels through the outlook period.  My new web address for propagation links is: www.jameswelsh.me

April 2020

Propagation April 2020

Solar activity was generally very low during March.  No earth directed CME’s were observed during the reporting period.   The solar Flux reached moderate levels each day of the period.

Geomagnetic activity reached active levels on 19 March with unsettled levels 16. 18 to 22 March in response to Coronal High Speed Streams (CHSS) influence.

Quiet conditions were observed from 17 March

Propagation Forecast until 18 April

Lyrrid Meteor Showers are due from 13-29 April, peaking at 21-22 April and are said to be the top 5 for meteor shower propagation on the 2-6 meter bans https://bit.ly3bsiLJy

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.  The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels throughout the period in response to recurrent CH HSS influence

Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels on 27 March and 15 April, with unsettled conditions anticipated for 27-29 March and 15-18 April, due to CH HSS effects.  Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period   https://biy.ly2wLPiHY

March 2020

Propagation Summary

The sun has been blank (no sunspots for 36 consecutive days.  This is a sign that that solar minimum is still underway despite recent signs of life from Solar Cycle 25.  During Solar Minimum, auroras are confined mainly to the Arctic.    The next episode will have occurred on 2-3 March, when a minor stream of solar wind reached earth.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

The NOAA/ NASA solar prediction panel predicts solar minimum to occurring in April 2020 (+/+ six months.  The panel agreed that cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to solar cycle 24 with a peak on July 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115 which would make Solar cycle 25 very similar to solar cycles 24.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on 29 Feb to 2 March due to a minor stream of solar wind.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely until 18-2 o March when another minor event is forecast.

The Geomagnetic field is forecast to be at quiet to active levels on 1-2 March followed by quiet to unsettled conditions until March 18-20 when quiet to active conditions are likely.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

February 2020

Propagation Summary

Following quite conditions in December, sunspots appeared on December 24-26. On January 2 NOAA reported  a new sunspot, but this appears to be part of Solar Cycle 24.  No major events have been reported until Jan 26

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mainly very low with a slight chance for C class solar flare activity. 

The solar flux is expected to reach 72 from Jan 26 to Feb 7 and 72 on Feb 8-16 .

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-05 Feb in response to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream influence followed by similar conditions for the rest of the outlook period. (ARRL.org)

 The NOAA/NASA international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus is a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7^th longest on record (11.4 years).

February 2019

Propagation Summary
January started off with very low levels of solar activity increasing to low levels on Jan 6 due to an isolated C1 flare.  Very low levels returned until 24-25 Jan

The Solar flux was at normal levels on 1-4 Jan increasing to high levels on 6-10 Jan due to the C1 flare then moderate levels prevailed until 13 Jan. Another similar event occurred on 24-25 Jan followed by moderate levels...

The Geomagnetic Field was at quiet to G1 minor storm levels until 5 Jan when minor storm levels were observed returning to quiet to unsettled levels by 6 Jan, followed by quiet levels on 8-10 Jan.  The Solar wind increased on 11 Jan and by 12 Jan levels were quiet.  Solar wind then increased on 24-25 Jan producing a G1 magnetic storm. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected until the end of January

Propagation Forecast until 16 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period. 
The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 28 Jan-01Feb and 07-16 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 02-06 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active on 31 Jan-03 Feb due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity Coronal Hole High speed Stream. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at predominately quiet levels.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

January 2019

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally very low during late November with the Solar Flux at background levels, and the Geomagnetic Field ranged from quiet to unsettled.

A B type Solar Flare was forecast on 5 December but this did not materialise. There was also minor sunspot activity with a B1 flare on 14 Decembe5, and then conditions remained quiet for the remainder of December

The Solar flux was high on 6 and 8-9 Dec followed by normal levels until high levels were reached on 10 Dec conditions followed by quiet conditions.

The Geomagnetic Field was generally quiet to unsettled except on 10-11 followed by mainly quiet conditions

Propagation Forecast until January 19

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels on 8-12 Jan with moderate levels forecast for 3-5 Jan. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 4 Jan due to Coronal Hole High Speed streams. Quiet to unsettled or generally quiet conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Propagation conditions should generally remain the same as December with possible variations on 4 and 16 January.   http://bit.ly/dxlatest

November 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low during October, apart from minor sunspot activity on 12-14 October with no earth directed coronal mass ejections observed..

The solar flux reached high levels on 08-13 and 16-20 Oct with moderate levels observed during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10 and 13 Oct, active conditions on 08-09 Oct, unsettled levels on 11 Oct, and quiet conditions on 12 and 14 and 15 Oct due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity followed by quiet conditions.

Propagation Forecast until 17 November

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-09 and 12-16 Nov with moderate flux levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03-04 Nov with active levels expected on 05-06 Nov due to the influence of recurrent Coronal Hole high speed streams.

Latest updates can be found at the NOAA website: http://bit.ly/NOA7Day

October2018

Propagation Summary
A strong and unexpected G3-class geomagnetic storm occurred during the early hours of August 26th. The storm may have been caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME).  This caused radio blackouts in some parts of the world and visible auroras in parts of the USA.  This continued over the August bank Holiday weekend in the UK. Low levels were then observed with the exception of a strong flare on Sep11  ( spaceweather,com )

The solar flux at was at very high levels on 28-29 Aug and at high levels on 27 Aug, 30-31Aug and 01-08 Sep). High levels were reached on 12-16 Sep following moderate levels 10-11 Sep. Conditions then ranged from quiet to moderate until sep16 with the exception of 1416 Sep due to a moderate storm.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to G1and G2 storm levels on 27 Aug followed by unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug. Quiet levels persisted on 29 Aug - 02 Sep.  By midday on 28 Aug, field activity declined to quiet levels until 9 Sep with a minor disturbance on 5 and 7 Sep.

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.
The solar flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels
for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in solar flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate)storm levels. G2 (Moderate)storm levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 storm levels are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.  http://bit.ly/2Mv2RSH

September2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was mostly very low throughout August.
This was only very minor flare activity occurring on 14-19 August with little significant affect.

The solar flux was mainly at normal levels, except on 16-17 August where moderate levels were observed.  On 18-19 August, levels were high. 

Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Solar winds was at normal levels with the exception of  15-19 August due to a Coronal Hole High speed stream (CH HSS) moving towards an effective position, but levels returned to normal buy 19 August when conditions were quiet.

Propagation Forecast until 15 September
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. The Solar flux is expected to reach high levels 13-15 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 03-04 Sep, 07 Sep, and 11-15 Sep with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-21 Aug, again due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

The Parker Solar Probe
On 11 August, the Parker Solar Probe was launched.   The project is to study how Solar winds occur and to achieve more accurate prediction of their affect on the earth’s Ionosphere and terrestrial weather etc. More information can be found at:  http://bit.ly/2Mv2RSH

August 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low throughout most of July. 
The solar flux was at moderate to normal levels with some moderate sunspot activity on 9-11 July, 13-17 July and also on 2-22 July.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with several periods of unsettled observed on 11-12, 16-17 and 20-21 July.

Propagation Forecast until 18 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels 01-11, and 18 Aug. Normal levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to produce active conditions on 17 Aug due to the influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor showers

The Perseid Meteor showers are forecast from 17 July until 24 August, and will peak on the night between August 12 and August 13.  http://bit.ly/2vb7dTv

July 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was mostly at very low levels during June. The solar disk was spotless from 06-10 Jun.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during June. 

The Solar flux reached high levels on 11-13 Jun and decreased to moderate levels on 14- 22 June, and high levels were reached on 24 June in response to an enhanced solar wind environment.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active with a G1 minor storm period observed on 18-19 Jun followed by quiet to unsettled conditions for the remainder of June

Propagation forecast until 21 July

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels from 29 Jun - 10 Jul.  Very low levels are also expected from 11 July with a chance of C-class flare activity, through the remainder of the outlook period.

The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 28 Jun - 10 July, due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams (CH HSS), for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 15 Jul and 20-21 Jul following minor storms 27-28 Jun, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  https://bit.ly/2KsGj3l

June 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low throughout May and no earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed, which would have resulted in long skip and possible radio blackouts at times.

The solar flux reached very high levels on 9-11, 13-14 May and high levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 07-09, 11-12 May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole/high speed solar wind stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 May, and conditions remained mostly quiet to unsettled for the rest of the period

Propagation forecast up to 16 June
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.
The solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 June with high levels expected on 02-04 and 08-13 June.   Moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 02 June and G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 01 June due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream.  Active conditions are expected on 03-05 June.  https://bit.ly/2IMswQP

April 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low during the second half of March. There were some minor disturbances on 15-17 march, but there were no earth directed Coronal Mass ejections during the period.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on 16-18 March. Normal levels were observed on 12-15 March.  Geomagnetic field activity reached Moderate storm levels on 18 March and active levels on 14-17 March due to the influence of a negative polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the rest of the period

Propagation Forecast up to 14 April
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
The solar flux is expected to be high levels on 12-14 April.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the period.  Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 12 April with active periods likely on 11, 13-14 April, due to effects of multiple recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.  https://goo.gl/cVudzs

Equinox Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Field
Cracks are opening in Earth's magnetic field.  Researchers have long known that during weeks around equinoxes, openings form in Earth's magnetosphere.   Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Arctic lights. Even a gentle gust of solar wind can breach our planet's magnetic defences.  The cracks are opened by the solar wind itself.  South-pointing magnetic fields inside the solar wind oppose Earth's north-pointing magnetic field.
The two, (North Versus South), partially cancel one another, weakening our planet's magnetic defences. Theoretically, this could affect HF propagation. 
(SARL via Mike Terry, WOR\DXLD)  https://goo.gl/E4QEvj

March 2018

Propagation Summary
A C1 Solar Flare occurred on 10 Feb.  Solar activity was at low levels on 12 Feb and very low levels on 13-18 Feb.  However, data from the SOHO Observatory suggests that the Solar flare on Feb10 never arrived at earth until Feb 15, which apparently reduced the affect normally associated with such flares.

The Solar Flux was at background levels on 12-16 Feb and increased to moderate levels on 17
Feb followed by high levels on 18 Feb due to negative polarity effects from a coronal Hole Mass Ejection

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 12-14 Feb.  On 15 Feb, arrival of the 12 Feb CME produced only one active period during the day.
Active levels were reached again on 17 and 18 Feb in response to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds also increased on 18 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 17 March 2018
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook period.
The Solar Flux, having been at high levels up to 25 Feb, will decrease to normal levels until the end of the forecast period.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 04 March and 15 March, with quiet to active levels expected on 14 March and 16-17 March, as multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streamss are anticipated to become effective. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6 

Long range solar forecasts by NASA suggest that solar Cycle 25, (peaking around the year 2022) will be the weakest solar cycle in centuries. https://go.nasa.gov/2F2afjK

February 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low throughout most of January.  Minor sunspot activity was evident on 10-11 Jan.  The Solar flux reached high levels on 15-19 and 23-25 Jan and moderate levels were observed on 20-22 and 26-28 Jan.
Geomagnetic Field activity reached G1 minor storm levels on Jan14 with isolated active periods observed on 8, 9 and 14 Jan due to coronal Hole High Speed Streams. Generally quiet to unsettled Geomagnetic Field activity was observed for the remainder of the summary period. 

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 11-15 Feb; and normal levels are forecast for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04-05 Feb, 09-11 Feb and 15-17 Feb, all due to influence from recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

Daily UK space weather updates are available at the Met Office website:  http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB  A very useful table of optimal working frequencies using real time data can also be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html

January 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar conditions have been fairly consistent during November with no major solar storms, with the exception o Nov 8-9 when a G2 Solar flare occurred. Calm conditions prevailed until Nov 21 when a G1 flare caused a further minor disturbance followed by a similar event on 4-5 December. There were more disturbed days during December, the biggest one being on Dec 4-5, but things had calmed down by Dec14, but more disturbed conditions returned on 14-21 Dec  and again Dec 26, 29-30th.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 13 January 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period.
The solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 01 Jan, and 07-13 Jan.  High levels are likely on 02-06 Jan. All increases in Solar Flux are anticipated to be due to the expected influence of recurrent Coronal Hole High speed Streams (CH HSSs).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm 01 Jan, and 13 Jan. Active conditions are 02 Jan, and 08 Jan.  Unsettled levels are forecast for 03 Jan and 09 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Quiet conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. http://bit.ly/NOA7Day

November 2017

Propagation Summary
The Solar flux was at moderate levels on 9-11 Oct, Followed by high levels on 12-14 Oct and very high levels on Oct 15. The Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to moderate storm levels on 9-10 Oct, then minor storm levels 11-12, 14 -15 Oct, and moderate levels on Oct 13.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 November
November is expected to start with minor levels of solar activity, followed by high levels from 7-11 Nov, peaking on 9-10 Nov, when the Boulder K index should reach a high of 6.
The Geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to active conditions on 01-02 Nov, and 07-11 Nov, and a G2 Solar Flare should add to this activity on Nov 10.  More unsettled conditions are likely on Nov 15-16 followed by calmer condition until the end of the forecast period. The calmest days in November should be Nov 3-6, 13, and the most unsettled days should be 7-11 and 15 Nov.
4 day space weather forecasts can be found at: http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB

Solar cycle 24
the current solar cycle 24, (the smallest since solar cycle 14 in 1906) has peaked in 2014, and is forecast to come to an end during 2020. Scientists are predicting that sunspot activity could be even lower during solar cycle 25:  http://bit.ly/2y9yxG5
The next propagation report will be in January.

October 2017

Propagation Summary
There has been some strong sunspot activity during September.  On Sep 4-9, minor storm conditions prevailed, followed by more severe storm conditions from 13-19th, peaking on Sep 14-15, when the Boulder k index actually reached 6, which is unusual.  This was followed by minor storm conditions from Sep 24-30. 

Propagation Outlook
October is likely to start with minor to moderate storm conditions, followed by more severe conditions on Oct 12-14. This is due to Coronal Hole high Speed streams resulting in high levels of Solar Flux, plus the Geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active.
In conclusion, the calmer day should be Oct 3-9 and disturbed days should be Oct 11-14.

Solar Cycle 24
The historically weak Solar Cycle 24 continues to transition away towards the next solar minimum.  There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017, and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016.  The next solar minimum will probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.  The current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980.
http://bit.ly/2xMNwnt
Live Usable HF frequency information is available at: http://hfpropagation.com/
A 4 day space weather forecast can be found at the UK Met. Office website: http://bit.ly/2fX7zX1

September 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the second half of August.  Very low levels were observed on 14-15 August. Low levels prevailed on 14-15 August and again on 18-19th, while moderate levels were observed from the 20th.
Perseid meteor showers were observed from 2 August which peaked on 12-13th.
There will have been some interesting DX anomalies in parts of the USA on August 21 during the Solar Eclipse which affected states Oregon to Iowa in a straight line across North America. Ionospheric conditions will have changed partly from day to night time mode for the eclipse’s duration. There will be another similar eclipse in 2024 (eclipse17.com)

Propagation Forecast up to 16 September
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels from 03-07 September with a chance R1and R2 (Minor to Moderate) activity from 08-16 September.
The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels from 01-07 Sep, 11-13 Sep, and again from 15-16 Sep due to recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HHS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 8-9 Sep and 13-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HHS activity.  In conclusion the calmest HF conditions should be on Sep 3-7 and 10-12, and the most disturbed days are likely to be Sep1-2 and 14-16.
(spaceweather.com and http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

August 2017

Propagation Summary
On July 23rd, NASA and European spacecraft observed a massive explosion on the far side of the sun.  A spectacular Coronal Mass Ejection tore through the sun's atmosphere and it now appears to be en route to Mars. Earth will not feel the effects of the blast because of its location on the opposite side of the sun.  However, the source of the eruption will turn back toward our planet in early August, possibly bringing a new round of geomagnetic storms.
(spaceweather.com via Mike Terry)

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the return of the Coronal Mass ejection from 23 July as it rotates towards Earth.  Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to range from normal to high levels.  The influence of recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams is expected to cause high levels from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug.  Moderate levels are expected on 30-31 Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.
Quiet to minor storm levels are likely on 05 Aug.  Quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul and 17-18 Aug.  Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and 19 Aug.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the multiple, recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.  http://bit.ly/2tQYFTX