Tuesday, 8 January 2008

January 2008

with James Welsh propagation@bdxc.org.uk
Propagation Forecast
The second half of December remained fairly calm with the Solar A Index at 5 and the K at 2. This situation should remain, (as far as the A and K are concerned), until January 6th when the A index will peak at 12, but will settle back to 5 by the 9th, followed by a more serious disturbance on 13th to the 15th Jan with the A index at 15, and the K at 4. The Solar Flux however, after remaining at 72 for most of December, will rise 85 by Jan 4th, dropping back to 72 by the 16th. In conclusion, January 2nd to the 20th will probably be quite disturbed, propagation-wise, with the worst days being the 7th and 8th plus the 17th and 18th.
Solar Cycle 24.

Following general speculation about whether we have reached ‘Sunspot Minimum, here is an article from radioworld.com via Mike Terry:Since Solar Cycle 23 peaked between 2000 and 2003, solar activity has been declining. Amateur radio operators and shortwave listeners have been closely watching for the new cycle to start, knowing increasing solar activity will lead to higher maximum usable frequencies (MUF) and better high-frequency propagation. Satellite operators and TV engineers at stations on low VHF channels are also watching the solar cycle, but their concerns are that solar storms could damage satellites and higher MUF could allow distant stations to interfere with TV reception.He explained, "New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot." "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude, according to the NASA Science news release. More time is needed to see if this sunspot really is the start of Solar Cycle 24."Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems," NASA said. Due to the increased use of telecommunications, there is concern the coming cycle could have a greater impact than the previous cycle. We won't have to worry about this for a few more years, however, as the solar cycles usually take a few years to peak. "We still have some quiet times ahead," Hathaway said. From: www.radioworld.com

You will find links to these articles and more at: http://clik.to/radioprop