Sunday, 30 December 2012

January 2013

Propagation Summary.
Solar activity was low in December, and only C1 level flares were observed. The most productive being on 17 December, but none of these flares were earth directed. 
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels except on 17 and 20 December. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 19 January

Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels during the forecast period, with a slight chance for an M-class event.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with the exception of 29-30 December and 13 January when recurrent Coronal Hole high speed streams are expected to bring unsettled conditions.  

Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Progression
Solar Cycle 24 is forecast to peak in the first quarter of 2013.  However, according to the progression charts, average sunspot numbers have remained comparatively low during late 2012. The peak time for sunspot activity was in November 2011, when sunspot numbers actually reached 95, but it then dropped to 30, and then rose to 65 by February 2012, but levels have remained mostly between 55 and 65 for most of 2012. The forecast average of 90, forecast for 2013 is not evident, so far.  If you look at the trend charts at: you can see the difference compared to the Solar Cycle 23 peak in 2001.