Saturday, 27 October 2012

November 2012

Propagation Summary
During the second half of October, solar activity ranged from low to high levels.  Activity was low during 15-19 October, due to mostly low-level ‘C’ class flares, the largest one being on the 17th.  Activity increased to high levels on 20 October.  Activity increased to high levels on 20 October due to an impulsive M9 flare and a coronal mass ejection, but conditions returned to moderate levels by the 21st.  Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels early on 15 October, then decreased to quiet levels for the rest of the period.  

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity  Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during 22 October - 02 November with M-class flare activity likely.  Activity is expected to decrease to low levels during 03 – 17 November. However, there will be a chance for M-class flare activity beginning 15 November.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 22 - 23 October with a slight chance for active levels, due to a coronal hole.  Quiet levels are then expected during 24 October - 07 November. An increase to unsettled levels is expected on 08, and 09 November, then quiter conditions are likely to prevail by from November 11th. 

The Grand Solar Cycle
During a Horizon programme called ‘Global Wierding’  Dr Mark Lockwood came up with a theory that there is actually a grand solar cycle which occurs approximately every 300 years.  This coincides with the ‘Maunder Minimum’ period which occurred in 1645-1715, and could explain the quiet solar condition we have experienced in recent years.  More about this period can be found at:   The 11 year solar cycle apparently is equal to a ‘sun year’.   More information at:

The next propagation report will be in January.  Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Milke Terry for your contributions during 2012

October 2012

Propagation Summary 

Solar activity was at low levels during most of September.  A type II Radio Sweep occurred at and was associated with a non-Earth directed Coronal mass ejection.

Solar flux was at high levels on 10 and 12 September. Moderate levels were observed on 11 September and again from 13 - 16 September. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period with two isolated unsettled periods on 12 September and 15 September.  

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for moderate activity during the first half of October.  The solar flux at is expected to be at high levels from 07-09 October.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with

active conditions possible on 03-05, 09-10, and 12-13 October. The active conditions are mainly associated with coronal hole high speed streams. 

Sunspot Activity is increasing

Sunspot activity has increased during 2010-11.  There have been no spotless days so far during 2012.   2011 had only 2 spotless days, 2010 had 51 and 2009 had a total of 260 spotless days.  However, monthly sunspot numbers are still around the 70 mark, following the sharp drop during early 2012.