Saturday, 26 July 2008

August 08

Propagation Forecast
Propagation conditions during July have been fairly calm, especially from the 25th with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. After a slight fluctuation on the 1st August, conditions will remain the same until the 7th when there will be another disturbance which will last until the 14th and will peak on the 8th with the A index at 20 and the K index at 5. Things will then remain calm until the 10th August with the A index rising to 10 and the K index to 3. The worst days will be 7th to the 12th and also the 18th.
The solar flux however will remain at 2 during the first week in August, rising to 5 by the 8th and settling back to 3 by the 18th. (
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is generally poor to fair. (
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
June 27, 2008 During the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, CO in May, 2008, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel released an update to the prediction for the next solar cycle. In short, the update is that the panel has not yet made any changes to the prediction issued in April, 2007. The panel predicted solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012.
The 2008 Perseid Meteor Shower 12th August.
"Peaking on August 12th, it should be a good show. "The time to look is during the dark hours before dawn on Tuesday, August 12th," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "There should be plenty of meteors--perhaps one or two every minute.
The source of the shower is Comet Swift-Tuttle. Although the comet is far away, currently located beyond the orbit of Uranus, a trail of debris from the comet stretches all the way back to Earth.
Crossing the trail in August, Earth will be pelted by specks of comet dust hitting the atmosphere at 132,000 mph. At that speed, even a flimsy speck of dust makes a vivid streak of light when it disintegrates--a meteor! Because, Swift-Tuttle's meteors streak out of the constellation Perseus, they are called "Perseids.
Serious meteor hunters will begin their watch early, on Monday evening, August 11th, around 9 pm when Perseus first rises in the northeast. This is the time to look for Perseid Earthgrazers--meteors that approach from the horizon and skim the atmosphere overhead like a stone skipping across the surface of a pond." (NASA Science News )
Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates. Links can be found on my web page.