Friday, 22 July 2011

August 2011

Propagation Summary
According to the forecast at solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there is a chance that new, rapidly emerging flux regions could increase activity to moderate levels at any time during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background or moderate levels for most of the outlook interval. However, increases to high levels are expected for 6-9 August in response to recurrent high speed streams.

Geomagnetic field activity was unsettled on 20-22 July due to a coronal hole. An increase to unsettled levels is expected on 27 July to 2 August due to another recurrent coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected for 3 August followed by another increase to unsettled levels for 04-10 August due to recurrence. 11-13 August is expected to be quiet and an increase to unsettled is expected for 14-15 August, again due to recurrence.
The Sunspot trend chart at shows a sharp drop in sunspot activity which would suggest that the estimated peak forecast for the first quarter of 2013 will be well below the estimated number of 90.

Perseid Meteor Shower Peak August 12, 2011.
Good news for Meteor Shower DX’ers. The maximum of the Perseid activity in 2011 is expected during the night of the 12th August. The Perseids is the name of a prolific meteor shower. The shower is visible from mid-July each year, with the peak in activity being between August 9 and 14, depending on the particular location of the stream. During the peak, the rate of meteors reaches 60 or more per hour.
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Understanding Propagation
Here is a very useful article about Propagation modes. “Hop length is the ground distance covered by RF after it has been reflected once from the Ionosphere and returned to Earth. Maximum hop length is set by the height of the Ionosphere and curvature of the earth. The maximum hop length shown assumes antenna radiation of 4 degrees and the E and F layer heights as specified.” It is in PDF format and can be viewed, downloaded or printed from:

Space Weather Forecasting at the UK Met. Office
The UK Meteorological Office is developing a Space Weather forecasting system.
The key aims are to produce near real-time space weather ‘nowcasts’ and short-range forecasts by developing existing empirical analysis and modelling techniques as well as research with more sophisticated space weather models and to build an upgraded forecasting system. More details at: