Friday, 26 January 2018

February 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was very low throughout most of January.  Minor sunspot activity was evident on 10-11 Jan.  The Solar flux reached high levels on 15-19 and 23-25 Jan and moderate levels were observed on 20-22 and 26-28 Jan.
Geomagnetic Field activity reached G1 minor storm levels on Jan14 with isolated active periods observed on 8, 9 and 14 Jan due to coronal Hole High Speed Streams. Generally quiet to unsettled Geomagnetic Field activity was observed for the remainder of the summary period. 

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 11-15 Feb; and normal levels are forecast for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04-05 Feb, 09-11 Feb and 15-17 Feb, all due to influence from recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

Daily UK space weather updates are available at the Met Office website:  http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB  A very useful table of optimal working frequencies using real time data can also be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html

January 2018

Propagation Summary
Solar conditions have been fairly consistent during November with no major solar storms, with the exception o Nov 8-9 when a G2 Solar flare occurred. Calm conditions prevailed until Nov 21 when a G1 flare caused a further minor disturbance followed by a similar event on 4-5 December. There were more disturbed days during December, the biggest one being on Dec 4-5, but things had calmed down by Dec14, but more disturbed conditions returned on 14-21 Dec  and again Dec 26, 29-30th.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 13 January 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period.
The solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 01 Jan, and 07-13 Jan.  High levels are likely on 02-06 Jan. All increases in Solar Flux are anticipated to be due to the expected influence of recurrent Coronal Hole High speed Streams (CH HSSs).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm 01 Jan, and 13 Jan. Active conditions are 02 Jan, and 08 Jan.  Unsettled levels are forecast for 03 Jan and 09 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Quiet conditions are forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. http://bit.ly/NOA7Day

November 2017

Propagation Summary
The Solar flux was at moderate levels on 9-11 Oct, Followed by high levels on 12-14 Oct and very high levels on Oct 15. The Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to moderate storm levels on 9-10 Oct, then minor storm levels 11-12, 14 -15 Oct, and moderate levels on Oct 13.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 November
November is expected to start with minor levels of solar activity, followed by high levels from 7-11 Nov, peaking on 9-10 Nov, when the Boulder K index should reach a high of 6.
The Geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to active conditions on 01-02 Nov, and 07-11 Nov, and a G2 Solar Flare should add to this activity on Nov 10.  More unsettled conditions are likely on Nov 15-16 followed by calmer condition until the end of the forecast period. The calmest days in November should be Nov 3-6, 13, and the most unsettled days should be 7-11 and 15 Nov.
4 day space weather forecasts can be found at: http://bit.ly/2zdi6ZB

Solar cycle 24
the current solar cycle 24, (the smallest since solar cycle 14 in 1906) has peaked in 2014, and is forecast to come to an end during 2020. Scientists are predicting that sunspot activity could be even lower during solar cycle 25:  http://bit.ly/2y9yxG5
The next propagation report will be in January.

October 2017

Propagation Summary
There has been some strong sunspot activity during September.  On Sep 4-9, minor storm conditions prevailed, followed by more severe storm conditions from 13-19th, peaking on Sep 14-15, when the Boulder k index actually reached 6, which is unusual.  This was followed by minor storm conditions from Sep 24-30. 

Propagation Outlook
October is likely to start with minor to moderate storm conditions, followed by more severe conditions on Oct 12-14. This is due to Coronal Hole high Speed streams resulting in high levels of Solar Flux, plus the Geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active.
In conclusion, the calmer day should be Oct 3-9 and disturbed days should be Oct 11-14.

Solar Cycle 24
The historically weak Solar Cycle 24 continues to transition away towards the next solar minimum.  There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017, and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016.  The next solar minimum will probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.  The current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980.
http://bit.ly/2xMNwnt
Live Usable HF frequency information is available at: http://hfpropagation.com/
A 4 day space weather forecast can be found at the UK Met. Office website: http://bit.ly/2fX7zX1





September 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the second half of August.  Very low levels were observed on 14-15 August. Low levels prevailed on 14-15 August and again on 18-19th, while moderate levels were observed from the 20th.
Perseid meteor showers were observed from 2 August which peaked on 12-13th.
There will have been some interesting DX anomalies in parts of the USA on August 21 during the Solar Eclipse which affected states Oregon to Iowa in a straight line across North America. Ionospheric conditions will have changed partly from day to night time mode for the eclipse’s duration. There will be another similar eclipse in 2024 (eclipse17.com)

Propagation Forecast up to 16 September
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels from 03-07 September with a chance R1and R2 (Minor to Moderate) activity from 08-16 September.
The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels from 01-07 Sep, 11-13 Sep, and again from 15-16 Sep due to recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HHS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 8-9 Sep and 13-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HHS activity.  In conclusion the calmest HF conditions should be on Sep 3-7 and 10-12, and the most disturbed days are likely to be Sep1-2 and 14-16.
(spaceweather.com and http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

August 2017

Propagation Summary
On July 23rd, NASA and European spacecraft observed a massive explosion on the far side of the sun.  A spectacular Coronal Mass Ejection tore through the sun's atmosphere and it now appears to be en route to Mars. Earth will not feel the effects of the blast because of its location on the opposite side of the sun.  However, the source of the eruption will turn back toward our planet in early August, possibly bringing a new round of geomagnetic storms.
(spaceweather.com via Mike Terry)

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the return of the Coronal Mass ejection from 23 July as it rotates towards Earth.  Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to range from normal to high levels.  The influence of recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams is expected to cause high levels from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug.  Moderate levels are expected on 30-31 Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.
Quiet to minor storm levels are likely on 05 Aug.  Quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul and 17-18 Aug.  Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and 19 Aug.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the multiple, recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.  http://bit.ly/2tQYFTX

July 2017

Propagation Summary
During the second half of June, there were 2 minor disturbances, the first one being on 19-22 June, caused by an earth directed G1 class solar flare, and another similar event occurred on 25-27 June. The remainder of June has been quiet to unsettled.

Propagation Forecast until 15 July.
Propagation conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until July 13-14, when a major event is forecast. The planetary 'A' index is likely to jump from 5 to 20 during this event, which is likely to cause major disturbances to HF communications. 

Solar cycle 25 is forecast to start during 2020 and according to forecasts, solar activity is likely to be even lower than it has been during the current solar cycle.  Average sunspot numbers are currently around the 20 mark, (much lower that the forecasted number of 50). http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/  There is also a long explanation at: https://goo.gl/uLmC2X

Related articles can also be found at: https://goo.gl/2R91oj  Detailed maps of current solar events can also be found at: http://www.bandconditions.com  and at: https://goo.gl/Qb7kjD