Saturday, 30 July 2016

August 2016

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was at very low levels from 11-14 July with only a few simple sunspot regions.  
A sunspot group emerged on 15-17 July producing 13 C Class flares, the largest of which was late on the 17 July.
The Solar Flux reached high levels throughout the period, particularly on 17 July at 1630.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The majority of the period was under the influence of high speed solar wind streams from a large coronal hole peaking on 12 July causing minor storm levels. The rest of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels with quiet conditions observed on 17 July.

Propagation Forecast up to 13 August
Low levels of solar activity are expected, with a chance of M-Class flares from 5-13 August.
The solar Flux is forecast at high levels from 5-13 August due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remaining forecast period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 minor storm levels 3-4 and 8 august, causing
unsettled to active levels. 
HF propagation is likely to be affected mostly on 3, 4 and 8 August with the possibility of radio black outs. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor Showers
The Perseids are likely to occur on 12-13 August. Details at: http://bit.ly/perseid16

Thanks to Mike Terry for regular updates

Sunday, 10 July 2016

July 2016


Propagation Summary
On June 17, the RSGB reported good reception on 6 Metres, but the rest of the HF band has been disturbed by Coronal Hole activity, particularly on 14-15 June.  Sporadic E conditions, however, have produced some good VHF propagation, mainly on the last week in June

Propagation Forecast up to 16 July
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.
The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July.  G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  www.swpc.noaa.gov/   See also, Glenn Hauser’s DX Listening digest at: www.worldofradio.com or bit.ly/dxlatest

Meteor showers in July 2016
Piscis Austrinids:  (Southern Hemisphere shower) Active: July 15 - August 10, Maximum: July 28
Southern Aquariids Active: July 12 - August 23. Maximum: July 30
Capricornids:  Active: July 03 - August 15 Maximum: July 30. 
More details can be found at: bit.ly/meteorprop Also thanks to Mike Terry for updates.
See also The DX Program on Mersey Retro Radio. www,merseyretro.com Fridays to Mondays at 1000 UTC.


June 2016

Propagation Summary
April was an interesting month for space weather with storm conditions on 2, and 7  April , caused by a negative magnetic field (usually causing extreme long skip in affected areas) On April 10, 13 and 18th  the disturbances were caused by fast solar winds. On May 2, Negative magnetic activity was again the cause, and then on May 8, a G3 class solar flare caused the disturbance. (spaceweather.com)

Propagation Forecast
Disturbed conditions are expected on June 2-6, 11-13 and 17-18.  The calmest days will be on 7-9 June and also 18th.  Although there have been many storm conditions lately, sunspot numbers are generally lower than forecast, and Solar Cycle 24 could easily die out before the forecast date of early 2019 if this trend continues, resulting in very little activity during 2018-19.
The same applies to the Solar Flux.  Related information can be found at:  goo.gl/rKPHze

Detailed Maximum Usable Frequency charts can be found on the DX Maps site. Where you can also subscribe to email propagation updates: http://bit.ly/1TG6bCM

The Sporadic E propagation season should also take place in June-July.
Thanks to Mike Terry for email updates.  Links to these articles and more can be found at: www.jameswelsh.org.uk

Tuesday, 12 April 2016

April 2016

Propagation Summary
Following disturbed conditions on March16 and17, caused by a high-speed solar wind stream flowing from a geo-effective coronal hole on the sun’s surface, quiet Solar conditions have prevailed for the remaining days of March, with the Solar Flux at 90, The planetary A index at 5, and the K Index at 2.

Propagation Forecast for April
April will start out with disturbed conditions, particularly on April 3 and 4, with the Solar Flux at 90, the A Index at 30 and the K Index at 6, which usually indicates storm conditions.   Calmer conditions should prevail until April 10-14 when storm conditions are likely, but quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from April16th.
( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices )

Meteor Showers in April
The Lyrids are due on April 21-22, but the 2016 showers are forecast to only be 10-15 meteors per hour, which may not be much use for meteor scatter propagation, but in past years these meteor showers have been at the rate of around 100 per hour.
( http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/earthskys-meteor-shower-guide#lyrids )

Radio Propagation Blog
Bob Zanotti and Bob Thomer, known as the 2 Bobs on Swiss Radio Internetional have done a number of podcasts on switzerlandinsound.com , featuring some re-recordings and some original programming of their long running Dx programme.  An interesting edition about shortwave propagation can be found here
The next propagation report will be in June. Links to propagation articles can be found on my propagation links page at : www.jameswelsh.org.uk 

Saturday, 27 July 2013

August 2013


Propagation Summary

Solar activity was low during the second half of July, apart from three C3 Solar flux events.  The first two occurred at 15, and 16 July, followed by a third event on 21st July.  The Solar flux also reached high levels every day during this period.  The Geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels, peaking on 15 July, then unsettled to active conditions were observed from 20 July onwards.


Propagation Forecast up to 17 August 2013

Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for isolated minor radio blackout conditions throughout the period due to active region flare activity.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at high levels through 20 August, due to a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream.  The Geomagnetic Field is expected to be generally quiet to unsettled for the majority of the period with the exception of 9-11 August and 14-15 August due to a recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream.  Weekly updates to this forecast are available at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt


The Sun's 2013 Solar Activity Peak Is Weakest in 100 Years

Though the sun is currently in the peak year of its 11-year solar weather cycle, our closest star has been rather quiet over all, scientists say.  This year's solar maximum is shaping up to be the weakest in 100 years and the next one could be even more quiescent, scientists said  "It's the smallest maximum we've seen in the Space Age," David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., told reporters in a teleconference.  The full article can be found at: http://www.space.com/21937-sun-solar-weather-peak-is-weak.html   (Via Mike Terry) 

Links to these articles and more can be found at: http://www.jameswelsh.org.uk

July 2013


Propagation Summary

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the second half of June.  The majority of the low level activity was on 18-22 June,  then high levels were observed on 23 June in response to coronal hole high speed Stream. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. The period began with quiet levels on 17-19 June, but due to an increase in solar wind speeds, the geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active periods late on 20 June.  The conditions then worsened to minor storm periods on 21-23 June due to another coronal mass ejection.

Propagation Forecast

Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 30 June to 04 July. By 05-06 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with the arrival of another Coronal Hole High speed Stream Quiet conditions are once again expected from 07-16 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 17 July with unsettled to active levels from 18-20 July due to Coronal Hole activity once again.  

Solar Observatory Launched:

NASA's newest space telescope, a unique solar observatory named "IRIS", is orbiting Earth  following a successful launch on June 27th.  Leaving from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital L-1011 aircraft carried IRIS inside a Pegasus XL rocket out over the Pacific Ocean, where the rocket separated from the belly of the airplane and blasted into space.  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt 

Shortwave Central

You can find up to date forecasts for shortwave conditions and articles about broadcast and amateur radio at: http://mt-shortwave.blogspot.co.uk/

June 2013


Propagation Summary

Solar activity reached high levels during the second half of May, in fact the highest levels of activity since 2013 began.  Between 13 and 14 May, newly-numbered Region 1748 produced 2 flares, producing several radio emissions.  Solar activity remained at high levels on 15 May, but activity declined to moderate levels on 16 May with a single M1 Flare.  Moderate levels continued through 17 May and low levels of activity prevailed until a M5 Coronal Mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on May 24th at around 1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor to major storm levels on 20 May in response to the 17 May coronal mass ejection.  More information about Solar Flare classes can be found at: http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html
 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity up to 15 June 2013

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the forecast period. High levels of activity are possible on 25 May and again after 7 June.  The Solar flux is expected to be at high levels from 24-31 May associated with a recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Stream.  In the absence of any Earth-directed coronal mass ejections, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be characterized by quiet to unsettled levels of activity with the possible exception of 28 May, when another Coronal Hole high speed stream brings active levels.  Daily updates are available at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt
 

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the autumn of 2013.  The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011, so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml