Propagation Forecast
During the second half of February, conditions have remained much the same with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. This is set to continue into March, except for the 13th , when the A index will peak at 12 and the K index will reach 4. The 14th March will be much the same with the A index down to 10 and the K down to 3. Conditions will settle beck to ‘normal’ by the 15th with the A and K indices returning to 5 and 2 respectively. The Solar flux, however is forecast to stay at a steady 70 throughout this period.
(Data from: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml )
Solar Cycle 24 Update
Looking at the Sunspot trend charts on Solarcycle24.com, it seems we will not see any significant difference in HF conditions until early 2010 when sunspot activity is forecast to rise steadily until the end of 2012. This will steadily drop down towards another low period by around 2020. Detailed charts can be found at: http://solarcycle24.com/flares.htm
Online Popagation Primer
Here is an interesting website featuring Flash Media videos about how HF propagation works, which is divided into sections including The Sun, The Ionosphere and the indices, explaining how to understand the A index, the K index and the Solar Flux. You will require a Broadband connection to view these files
http://www.ae4rv.com/tn/propflash.htm See also this website explaining how shortwave propagation actually works: http://dzabcik.home.texas.net/propagation.html See also Propagation Noise and Effectiveness at: http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-noise.html
AM Noise Sources“The radio noise problem is as old as radio itself. Unfortunately it is getting worse as technology steadily progresses and more man-made electronic products hit the shelves. This is a direct result of mainly consumer products that generate an increasingly higher noise level. The technology behind the AM broadcast signal is very out-dated as far as current technology is concerned, not to mention that the AM broadcast band is located in the very vulnerable medium wave frequency band.”
This is an article from radiolabs.com which details the amount of devices which can cause noise on the AM bands. This article can be found at: http://www.radiolabs.com/Articles/amnoise.html
Localised Radio Interference
The number of videos on YouTube showing the interference that 'Homeplug' type devices cause to peoples' enjoyment of radio listening continues to grow. A selection of Youtube postings can be found at: http://www.southgatearc.org/news/february2009/new_plt_interference_videos.htm
There is also the UKQRM group at: http://www.ukqrm.org/ There are many features on this site including a page for identifying different sources of interference from power line adapters to electric fences: http://www.mikeandsniffy.co.uk/UKQRM/database.htm For the latest updates, you can also join their Yahoo Group at: http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/UKQRM/
(From Mike Terry 9 February 2009)
Links to these articles and more can be found at: http://www.jameswelsh.org.uk
Saturday, 28 February 2009
Saturday, 24 January 2009
February '09
Propagation Forecast
Conditions in January have remained quiet with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. However, January will end with a disturbance on the 27th, with 'A' index peaking at 5 and the 'K' Index at 3. The 29th should be calm followed by a lesser disturbance on the 30th, then the calm conditions will then remain until at least February 14th. From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
Severe Space Weather.
Severe Geomagnetic Storms can affect other things besides radio reception, according to a recent report in NASA Science News. The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours. To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on. Read the full article at: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/21jan_severespaceweather.htm
NASA'S Mission to Improve Predictions of Violent Space Weather
Sometime between the end of 2008 and the beginning 2009, NASA will launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to trace Solar disturbances back to their origin deep within the sun. SDO will discover how the sun builds up and explosively releases magnetic energy, which powers severe space weather.
"Right now, we can make limited space weather predictions, but they are baby steps compared to our ability to forecast weather on Earth," said Dr. Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, Md., Project Scientist for SDO. "SDO's instruments are designed to work together to tell us more about how solar storms form, which will improve predictions of when they are about to happen."
Heat from nuclear fusion in the sun's core makes its outer layer churn like a pot of boiling water. Solar storms are born deep in this outer layer, with tangled magnetic fields generated by the sun’s churning electrically conducting gas (plasma). Like a rubber band that has been twisted too far, solar magnetic fields can suddenly snap to a new shape, releasing tremendous energy as a solar flare or a coronal mass ejection (CME).
Solar flares are explosions in the sun’s atmosphere, with the largest equal to billions of one-megaton nuclear bombs. Solar magnetic energy can also blast billions of tons of plasma into space at millions of miles (kilometres) per hour as a CME. This violent solar activity often occurs near sunspots, dark regions on the sun caused by concentrated magnetic fields. Sunspots and stormy solar weather follow a cycle that repeats approximately every eleven years, from few sunspots and quiet conditions to many sunspots and active, and back again.
The key to predicting solar storms and the solar activity cycle is an understanding of the flows of plasma inside the sun. Magnetic fields are "frozen" into the solar plasma, so plasma currents within the sun transport, concentrate, and help dissipate solar magnetic fields. Currently, the Sun’s activity is at its minimum, but by the time of the SDO launch, the activity level is expected to rise significantly.
Although the general process of solar activity and its cyclic behaviour are known, many of the details are not, such as exactly what magnetic structures lead to flares and CMEs. These details need to be discovered before solar storm predictions improve, and SDO's suite of three instruments is designed to do just that. ( From: http://www.physorg.com/news123774611.html )
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates.
Conditions in January have remained quiet with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. However, January will end with a disturbance on the 27th, with 'A' index peaking at 5 and the 'K' Index at 3. The 29th should be calm followed by a lesser disturbance on the 30th, then the calm conditions will then remain until at least February 14th. From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
Severe Space Weather.
Severe Geomagnetic Storms can affect other things besides radio reception, according to a recent report in NASA Science News. The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours. To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on. Read the full article at: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/21jan_severespaceweather.htm
NASA'S Mission to Improve Predictions of Violent Space Weather
Sometime between the end of 2008 and the beginning 2009, NASA will launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to trace Solar disturbances back to their origin deep within the sun. SDO will discover how the sun builds up and explosively releases magnetic energy, which powers severe space weather.
"Right now, we can make limited space weather predictions, but they are baby steps compared to our ability to forecast weather on Earth," said Dr. Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, Md., Project Scientist for SDO. "SDO's instruments are designed to work together to tell us more about how solar storms form, which will improve predictions of when they are about to happen."
Heat from nuclear fusion in the sun's core makes its outer layer churn like a pot of boiling water. Solar storms are born deep in this outer layer, with tangled magnetic fields generated by the sun’s churning electrically conducting gas (plasma). Like a rubber band that has been twisted too far, solar magnetic fields can suddenly snap to a new shape, releasing tremendous energy as a solar flare or a coronal mass ejection (CME).
Solar flares are explosions in the sun’s atmosphere, with the largest equal to billions of one-megaton nuclear bombs. Solar magnetic energy can also blast billions of tons of plasma into space at millions of miles (kilometres) per hour as a CME. This violent solar activity often occurs near sunspots, dark regions on the sun caused by concentrated magnetic fields. Sunspots and stormy solar weather follow a cycle that repeats approximately every eleven years, from few sunspots and quiet conditions to many sunspots and active, and back again.
The key to predicting solar storms and the solar activity cycle is an understanding of the flows of plasma inside the sun. Magnetic fields are "frozen" into the solar plasma, so plasma currents within the sun transport, concentrate, and help dissipate solar magnetic fields. Currently, the Sun’s activity is at its minimum, but by the time of the SDO launch, the activity level is expected to rise significantly.
Although the general process of solar activity and its cyclic behaviour are known, many of the details are not, such as exactly what magnetic structures lead to flares and CMEs. These details need to be discovered before solar storm predictions improve, and SDO's suite of three instruments is designed to do just that. ( From: http://www.physorg.com/news123774611.html )
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates.
Saturday, 3 January 2009
January 2009
Propagation Forecast
Sunspot numbers have progressively dropped so far this century when they started of at around the 120 mark. The end of 2008 has seen al all time low so far this century of 2. Boulder forecast charts estimate a steady yearly increase to around 80 by the second half of 2013. (www.solarcycle24.com)
Solar flux has virtually remained at a steady 70 during December and is forecast to remain the same until the end of January. The Boulder A Index peaked at 12 on 2nd January where it will remain until the end of the month. The Boulder K index, after starting in January at 4, will remain at 2 from the 4th January onwards. This will mean steady conditions throughout the rest of January.
First Meteors Of 2009
The annual Quadrantid meteor shower peaked on Jan. 3rd when Earth entered a stream of debris from shattered comet 2003 EH1. The timing of the encounter favored observers in Western North America and across the Pacific Ocean who could see dozens to hundreds of meteors during the dark hours before sunrise this Saturday morning. Visit http://spaceweather.com for a sky map and more information.
Space Weather Radio
For the new year, Spaceweather.com is pleased to announce a new service: Space Weather Radio, broadcasting live "sounds from space" around the clock. Today you can listen to the Air Force Space Surveillance Radar in Texas. When a meteor passes over the facility--ping!--there is an audible echo. (Activity should be high during the Quadrantid meteor showers) In the near future we'll be adding broadcasts of solar radio bursts and VLF signals from the ionosphere. The streams are punctuated by Daily Space Weather Updates .
2008. Blankest Year Of The Space Age
Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age. As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle." (www.nasa.gov)
“The sun is behaving normally”. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."
This report, that there's nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun. Sun Goes Longer Than Normal Without Producing Sunspots declared one recent press release. A careful look at the data, however, suggests otherwise. But first, a status report: "The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle," says Hathaway. "We call this 'Solar Minimum.' It is the period of quiet that separates one Solar Max from another."
During Solar Max, huge sunspots and intense solar flares are a daily occurrence. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate hams. The last such episode took place in the years around 2000-2001.
During Solar Minimum, the opposite occurs. Solar flares are almost nonexistent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to break the monotony of the blank sun. This is what we are experiencing now.
Hathaway has studied international sunspot counts stretching all the way back to 1749 and he offers these statistics: "The average period of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. Decaying solar cycle 23 (the one we are experiencing now) has so far lasted 142 months--well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal. The last available 13-month smoothed sunspot number was 5.70. This is bigger than 12 of the last 23 solar minimum values."
In summary, "the current minimum is not abnormally low or long." (Nasa.gov)
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates
Sunspot numbers have progressively dropped so far this century when they started of at around the 120 mark. The end of 2008 has seen al all time low so far this century of 2. Boulder forecast charts estimate a steady yearly increase to around 80 by the second half of 2013. (www.solarcycle24.com)
Solar flux has virtually remained at a steady 70 during December and is forecast to remain the same until the end of January. The Boulder A Index peaked at 12 on 2nd January where it will remain until the end of the month. The Boulder K index, after starting in January at 4, will remain at 2 from the 4th January onwards. This will mean steady conditions throughout the rest of January.
First Meteors Of 2009
The annual Quadrantid meteor shower peaked on Jan. 3rd when Earth entered a stream of debris from shattered comet 2003 EH1. The timing of the encounter favored observers in Western North America and across the Pacific Ocean who could see dozens to hundreds of meteors during the dark hours before sunrise this Saturday morning. Visit http://spaceweather.com for a sky map and more information.
Space Weather Radio
For the new year, Spaceweather.com is pleased to announce a new service: Space Weather Radio, broadcasting live "sounds from space" around the clock. Today you can listen to the Air Force Space Surveillance Radar in Texas. When a meteor passes over the facility--ping!--there is an audible echo. (Activity should be high during the Quadrantid meteor showers) In the near future we'll be adding broadcasts of solar radio bursts and VLF signals from the ionosphere. The streams are punctuated by Daily Space Weather Updates .
2008. Blankest Year Of The Space Age
Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age. As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle." (www.nasa.gov)
“The sun is behaving normally”. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."
This report, that there's nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun. Sun Goes Longer Than Normal Without Producing Sunspots declared one recent press release. A careful look at the data, however, suggests otherwise. But first, a status report: "The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle," says Hathaway. "We call this 'Solar Minimum.' It is the period of quiet that separates one Solar Max from another."
During Solar Max, huge sunspots and intense solar flares are a daily occurrence. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate hams. The last such episode took place in the years around 2000-2001.
During Solar Minimum, the opposite occurs. Solar flares are almost nonexistent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to break the monotony of the blank sun. This is what we are experiencing now.
Hathaway has studied international sunspot counts stretching all the way back to 1749 and he offers these statistics: "The average period of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. Decaying solar cycle 23 (the one we are experiencing now) has so far lasted 142 months--well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal. The last available 13-month smoothed sunspot number was 5.70. This is bigger than 12 of the last 23 solar minimum values."
In summary, "the current minimum is not abnormally low or long." (Nasa.gov)
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates
Friday, 24 October 2008
November '08
Propagation Forecast
The last week in October will have been quiet with the 'A' index at 5 and the ‘K’ at 2, but there will be a disturbance peaking on the 30th with the ‘A’ index at 15 and the ‘K’ at 4. The next major disturbance will peak on November 7th with the 'A' index again at 15 and the ‘K’ at 4. This should settle back to normal by the 10th. The Solar Flux however should remain at 68, rising to 70 by the 4th November then dropping to 69 by the 13th. (www.wm7d.net)
“New Cycle” Sunspot
On 19th October, a "new-cycle" sunspot belonging to Solar Cycle 24 was emerging near the sun's north-eastern limb. This was the third time in as many weeks that a new-cycle sunspot has interrupted the year's remarkable run of blank suns.
The accelerating pace of new-cycle sunspot production is an encouraging sign that, while solar activity remains very low, the sunspot cycle is unfolding more or less normally. We are not stuck in a permanent solar minimum.
IRTS Radio News Bulletin 19 October 2008 http://www.irts.ie
Space Weather reports that for the first time in months, a significant sunspot is emerging on the solar disk. Its described as a fast-growing active region with two dark cores, each larger than Earth. The magnetic polarity of the sunspot identifies it as a member of new Sunspot Cycle 24. This is viewed as an encouraging sign that the 11-year solar cycle is indeed progressing, albeit very, very slowly. (www.spaceweather.com)
2008, Blankest Year of the Space Age
Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age. As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."
If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.
Hathaway cautions that this development may sound more exciting than it actually is: "While the solar minimum of 2008 is shaping up to be the deepest of the Space Age, it is still unremarkable compared to the long and deep solar minima of the late 19th and early 20th centuries." Those earlier minima routinely racked up 200 to 300 spotless days per year. (NASA Science News September 30, 2008)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30sep_blankyear.htm?list1066509
Jim Linton VK3PC of Wireless Institute Of Australia reports: “The false start announced last year for the new Solar Cycle 24 has been followed up with speculation of things like `double dip' minima and even a new ice age for sunspots. But let's try to stay positive and not subscribe to thoughts of another minimum of 70 years, as occurred from 1645 to 1715, the only flat-lining in sunspot cycles since records.
Looking back at the onset of previous cycles that followed prolonged periods without sunspots, gives indication that Cycle 24 may have a much greater start-up intensity. Should it behave like Cycles 11 to 14 in the 19th century there will be more years rising and a shorter period in decline. The latest prediction is that Cycle 24 will be begin in mid 2009.
The prolonged solar minimum is also occurring at a time of reports in the northern hemisphere of continued sporadic-E enhancement on both the ten and six metre bands.”
Jim Linton, VK3PC. Amatuer Radio Newsline (Wireless Institute Of Australia http://www.wia.org.au/)
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates.
Links to these articles and more can be found on my links page: www.jameswelsh.org.uk
The last week in October will have been quiet with the 'A' index at 5 and the ‘K’ at 2, but there will be a disturbance peaking on the 30th with the ‘A’ index at 15 and the ‘K’ at 4. The next major disturbance will peak on November 7th with the 'A' index again at 15 and the ‘K’ at 4. This should settle back to normal by the 10th. The Solar Flux however should remain at 68, rising to 70 by the 4th November then dropping to 69 by the 13th. (www.wm7d.net)
“New Cycle” Sunspot
On 19th October, a "new-cycle" sunspot belonging to Solar Cycle 24 was emerging near the sun's north-eastern limb. This was the third time in as many weeks that a new-cycle sunspot has interrupted the year's remarkable run of blank suns.
The accelerating pace of new-cycle sunspot production is an encouraging sign that, while solar activity remains very low, the sunspot cycle is unfolding more or less normally. We are not stuck in a permanent solar minimum.
IRTS Radio News Bulletin 19 October 2008 http://www.irts.ie
Space Weather reports that for the first time in months, a significant sunspot is emerging on the solar disk. Its described as a fast-growing active region with two dark cores, each larger than Earth. The magnetic polarity of the sunspot identifies it as a member of new Sunspot Cycle 24. This is viewed as an encouraging sign that the 11-year solar cycle is indeed progressing, albeit very, very slowly. (www.spaceweather.com)
2008, Blankest Year of the Space Age
Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age. As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."
If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.
Hathaway cautions that this development may sound more exciting than it actually is: "While the solar minimum of 2008 is shaping up to be the deepest of the Space Age, it is still unremarkable compared to the long and deep solar minima of the late 19th and early 20th centuries." Those earlier minima routinely racked up 200 to 300 spotless days per year. (NASA Science News September 30, 2008)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30sep_blankyear.htm?list1066509
Jim Linton VK3PC of Wireless Institute Of Australia reports: “The false start announced last year for the new Solar Cycle 24 has been followed up with speculation of things like `double dip' minima and even a new ice age for sunspots. But let's try to stay positive and not subscribe to thoughts of another minimum of 70 years, as occurred from 1645 to 1715, the only flat-lining in sunspot cycles since records.
Looking back at the onset of previous cycles that followed prolonged periods without sunspots, gives indication that Cycle 24 may have a much greater start-up intensity. Should it behave like Cycles 11 to 14 in the 19th century there will be more years rising and a shorter period in decline. The latest prediction is that Cycle 24 will be begin in mid 2009.
The prolonged solar minimum is also occurring at a time of reports in the northern hemisphere of continued sporadic-E enhancement on both the ten and six metre bands.”
Jim Linton, VK3PC. Amatuer Radio Newsline (Wireless Institute Of Australia http://www.wia.org.au/)
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates.
Links to these articles and more can be found on my links page: www.jameswelsh.org.uk
Thursday, 18 September 2008
October 2008
Propagation Forecast.
The ‘mill pond’ conditions are likely to continue until the end of September, with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2 which I will refer to as ‘normal’ for this period. October will begin with a disturbance peaking on October 1st with the A Index rising to 30 and the K index to 5. This will have calmed down to ‘normal’ by October 8th and will be followed by a lesser disturbance on 12th October with the A index at 12 and the K Index at at 14, returning to ‘normal’ by the 15th. The Solar flux, however will remain at a constant 67 during this period. From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
There is still much speculation among the scientific community about the true beginning of Solar Cycle 24. In 2008, a negatively charged sunspot on January 24 was thought to be the start of the new solar cycle, as was another very weak sunspot on 31 July. The general consensus of opinion is now mid 2009!
Solar cycle 24 “will begin in mid 2009”
The false start announced last year for the new Solar Cycle 24 has been followed up with speculation of things like ‘double dip’ minima and even a new ice age for sunspots. But let’s try to stay positive and not subscribe to thoughts of another minimum of 70 years, as occurred from 1645 to 1715, the only flat-lining in sunspot cycles since records.
Looking back at the onset of previous cycles that followed prolonged periods without Sunspots, gives indication that Cycle 24 may have a much greater start-up intensity. Should it behave like Cycles 11 to 14 in the 19th century there will be more years rising and a shorter period in decline.
The latest prediction is that Cycle 24 will begin in mid 2009. The prolonged solar minimum is also occurring at a time of reports in the Northern Hemisphere of continued sporadic-E enhancement on both the ten and six metre bands.
Greyline propagation on HF also is experiencing a lack of geomagnetic disturbance, which is a good thing. Jim Linton VK3PC. Wireless Institute of Australia http://www.wia.org.au/
A new sunspot, number 1001, emerged on Thursday, September 11. It is actually a single group with two small magnetic disturbances. The previous Sunspot, was a weak one barely emerging on August 21-22. It was so small that some observatories didn't count it, but it was a Cycle 24 spot.
August was much ballyhooed as the first time since 1913 that there was a month or more between the most recent sunspot appearances. Actually it was the first time that a whole calendar month went by with no spots. Of course, this doesn't really mean anything more than any other 30 day period with no spots, because the calendar is based on arbitrary beginnings and endings.
From K7RA via Southgate ARC http://www.southgatearc.org/rss/
See also this article about solar cycle 24 and its implications for the United States by David Archibald at: www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
I also found this article from Ben Carlson writing in The Atlantic magazine:
Will changes in sunspot activity wreak havoc on earth? With the advent of Solar Cycle 24, many scientists expect a massive spike in solar activity that will have the potential to disrupt satellites, cell phones, and air traffic in 2012. But the real concern is Solar Cycle 25. Around 2022, a catastrophic drop in sun activity—the lowest in centuries, according to NASA—may cause temperatures on earth to plunge, inaugurating an extended period of cold. In other words, a new Ice Age.
What seems to have escaped many reporters’ grasps is that this dire scenario doesn’t square with the facts. The only evidence its proponents present is the seeming correlation between the “Little Ice Age” of the 17th and 18th centuries and a concurrent period of solar slump. But as everyone would do well to remember, climate is far more complicated than that. As one of the most chaotic and multi-variable systems humans study, it is easy to see why debates over climate change often occur.
Ben Carlson The Atlantic http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/the-ice-age-cometh.phpThanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates.
Links to these articles and more can be found at: www.jameswelsh.org.uk
The ‘mill pond’ conditions are likely to continue until the end of September, with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2 which I will refer to as ‘normal’ for this period. October will begin with a disturbance peaking on October 1st with the A Index rising to 30 and the K index to 5. This will have calmed down to ‘normal’ by October 8th and will be followed by a lesser disturbance on 12th October with the A index at 12 and the K Index at at 14, returning to ‘normal’ by the 15th. The Solar flux, however will remain at a constant 67 during this period. From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
There is still much speculation among the scientific community about the true beginning of Solar Cycle 24. In 2008, a negatively charged sunspot on January 24 was thought to be the start of the new solar cycle, as was another very weak sunspot on 31 July. The general consensus of opinion is now mid 2009!
Solar cycle 24 “will begin in mid 2009”
The false start announced last year for the new Solar Cycle 24 has been followed up with speculation of things like ‘double dip’ minima and even a new ice age for sunspots. But let’s try to stay positive and not subscribe to thoughts of another minimum of 70 years, as occurred from 1645 to 1715, the only flat-lining in sunspot cycles since records.
Looking back at the onset of previous cycles that followed prolonged periods without Sunspots, gives indication that Cycle 24 may have a much greater start-up intensity. Should it behave like Cycles 11 to 14 in the 19th century there will be more years rising and a shorter period in decline.
The latest prediction is that Cycle 24 will begin in mid 2009. The prolonged solar minimum is also occurring at a time of reports in the Northern Hemisphere of continued sporadic-E enhancement on both the ten and six metre bands.
Greyline propagation on HF also is experiencing a lack of geomagnetic disturbance, which is a good thing. Jim Linton VK3PC. Wireless Institute of Australia http://www.wia.org.au/
A new sunspot, number 1001, emerged on Thursday, September 11. It is actually a single group with two small magnetic disturbances. The previous Sunspot, was a weak one barely emerging on August 21-22. It was so small that some observatories didn't count it, but it was a Cycle 24 spot.
August was much ballyhooed as the first time since 1913 that there was a month or more between the most recent sunspot appearances. Actually it was the first time that a whole calendar month went by with no spots. Of course, this doesn't really mean anything more than any other 30 day period with no spots, because the calendar is based on arbitrary beginnings and endings.
From K7RA via Southgate ARC http://www.southgatearc.org/rss/
See also this article about solar cycle 24 and its implications for the United States by David Archibald at: www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
I also found this article from Ben Carlson writing in The Atlantic magazine:
Will changes in sunspot activity wreak havoc on earth? With the advent of Solar Cycle 24, many scientists expect a massive spike in solar activity that will have the potential to disrupt satellites, cell phones, and air traffic in 2012. But the real concern is Solar Cycle 25. Around 2022, a catastrophic drop in sun activity—the lowest in centuries, according to NASA—may cause temperatures on earth to plunge, inaugurating an extended period of cold. In other words, a new Ice Age.
What seems to have escaped many reporters’ grasps is that this dire scenario doesn’t square with the facts. The only evidence its proponents present is the seeming correlation between the “Little Ice Age” of the 17th and 18th centuries and a concurrent period of solar slump. But as everyone would do well to remember, climate is far more complicated than that. As one of the most chaotic and multi-variable systems humans study, it is easy to see why debates over climate change often occur.
Ben Carlson The Atlantic http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/the-ice-age-cometh.phpThanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates.
Links to these articles and more can be found at: www.jameswelsh.org.uk
Saturday, 23 August 2008
September 08
Propagation Forecast
From August 20th, conditions have remained quiet with the A index at 5, and the K index at 2. This is likely to remain the same except for September 5th with the A index at 18 and the K at 4. Also on September 12th, conditions should again become disturbed with the A index peaking at 20 on the 14th and the K index peaking at 5.
The Solar Flux, however has remained at a steady 66 and is likely to remain the same until at least mid September
MUF Map A near-real-time Maximum Usable Frequency map can be found at: http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php
Sunspot Numbers For 2008. With the exception of March, monthly average sunspot numbers have been on a downward trend so far during 2008. January started with an average sunspot number of 26 slowly dropping to 12 by the end of July. NOAA Predicted trends for 2008 have been fairly accurate, although sunspot numbers have been generally higher than predicted. Details at: http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspot.htm
HF Propagation Flash Movie
Here is a website featuring a flash movie which explains how HF radio propagation actually works: http://www.ae4rv.com/tn/propflash.htm .
A 45 day Solar Flux and A index forecast can also be found at: http://www.dxing.info/propagation
The Sun's Magnetic Field
When the transition from Cycle 23 to 24 occurs the magnetic field which surrounds the sun will change it's polarity. This will be apparent in the magnetic stucture of individual sunspot groups as seen in solar magnetograms such as those recorded at the IPS/USAF Learmonth Solar Observatory in Western Australia. With a change in the solar cycle, the polarity of the leader and trailer spots of a sunspot group are reversed. This observation, in conjunction with the latitude at which the new spot formed, will indicate that the change to the new solar cycle is underway. From: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational
From August 20th, conditions have remained quiet with the A index at 5, and the K index at 2. This is likely to remain the same except for September 5th with the A index at 18 and the K at 4. Also on September 12th, conditions should again become disturbed with the A index peaking at 20 on the 14th and the K index peaking at 5.
The Solar Flux, however has remained at a steady 66 and is likely to remain the same until at least mid September
MUF Map A near-real-time Maximum Usable Frequency map can be found at: http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php
Sunspot Numbers For 2008. With the exception of March, monthly average sunspot numbers have been on a downward trend so far during 2008. January started with an average sunspot number of 26 slowly dropping to 12 by the end of July. NOAA Predicted trends for 2008 have been fairly accurate, although sunspot numbers have been generally higher than predicted. Details at: http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspot.htm
HF Propagation Flash Movie
Here is a website featuring a flash movie which explains how HF radio propagation actually works: http://www.ae4rv.com/tn/propflash.htm .
A 45 day Solar Flux and A index forecast can also be found at: http://www.dxing.info/propagation
The Sun's Magnetic Field
When the transition from Cycle 23 to 24 occurs the magnetic field which surrounds the sun will change it's polarity. This will be apparent in the magnetic stucture of individual sunspot groups as seen in solar magnetograms such as those recorded at the IPS/USAF Learmonth Solar Observatory in Western Australia. With a change in the solar cycle, the polarity of the leader and trailer spots of a sunspot group are reversed. This observation, in conjunction with the latitude at which the new spot formed, will indicate that the change to the new solar cycle is underway. From: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational
Saturday, 26 July 2008
August 08
Propagation Forecast
Propagation conditions during July have been fairly calm, especially from the 25th with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. After a slight fluctuation on the 1st August, conditions will remain the same until the 7th when there will be another disturbance which will last until the 14th and will peak on the 8th with the A index at 20 and the K index at 5. Things will then remain calm until the 10th August with the A index rising to 10 and the K index to 3. The worst days will be 7th to the 12th and also the 18th.
The solar flux however will remain at 2 during the first week in August, rising to 5 by the 8th and settling back to 3 by the 18th. (http://www.wm7d.net)
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is generally poor to fair. (www.dxlc.com)
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
June 27, 2008 During the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, CO in May, 2008, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel released an update to the prediction for the next solar cycle. In short, the update is that the panel has not yet made any changes to the prediction issued in April, 2007. The panel predicted solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012.
The 2008 Perseid Meteor Shower 12th August.
"Peaking on August 12th, it should be a good show. "The time to look is during the dark hours before dawn on Tuesday, August 12th," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "There should be plenty of meteors--perhaps one or two every minute.
The source of the shower is Comet Swift-Tuttle. Although the comet is far away, currently located beyond the orbit of Uranus, a trail of debris from the comet stretches all the way back to Earth.
Crossing the trail in August, Earth will be pelted by specks of comet dust hitting the atmosphere at 132,000 mph. At that speed, even a flimsy speck of dust makes a vivid streak of light when it disintegrates--a meteor! Because, Swift-Tuttle's meteors streak out of the constellation Perseus, they are called "Perseids.
Serious meteor hunters will begin their watch early, on Monday evening, August 11th, around 9 pm when Perseus first rises in the northeast. This is the time to look for Perseid Earthgrazers--meteors that approach from the horizon and skim the atmosphere overhead like a stone skipping across the surface of a pond." (NASA Science News http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/ )
Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates. Links can be found on my web page.
Propagation conditions during July have been fairly calm, especially from the 25th with the A index at 5 and the K index at 2. After a slight fluctuation on the 1st August, conditions will remain the same until the 7th when there will be another disturbance which will last until the 14th and will peak on the 8th with the A index at 20 and the K index at 5. Things will then remain calm until the 10th August with the A index rising to 10 and the K index to 3. The worst days will be 7th to the 12th and also the 18th.
The solar flux however will remain at 2 during the first week in August, rising to 5 by the 8th and settling back to 3 by the 18th. (http://www.wm7d.net)
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is generally poor to fair. (www.dxlc.com)
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
June 27, 2008 During the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, CO in May, 2008, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel released an update to the prediction for the next solar cycle. In short, the update is that the panel has not yet made any changes to the prediction issued in April, 2007. The panel predicted solar minimum to occur in March, 2008. The panel expects the solar cycle to reach a peak sunspot number of 140 in October, 2011 or a peak of 90 in August, 2012.
The 2008 Perseid Meteor Shower 12th August.
"Peaking on August 12th, it should be a good show. "The time to look is during the dark hours before dawn on Tuesday, August 12th," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "There should be plenty of meteors--perhaps one or two every minute.
The source of the shower is Comet Swift-Tuttle. Although the comet is far away, currently located beyond the orbit of Uranus, a trail of debris from the comet stretches all the way back to Earth.
Crossing the trail in August, Earth will be pelted by specks of comet dust hitting the atmosphere at 132,000 mph. At that speed, even a flimsy speck of dust makes a vivid streak of light when it disintegrates--a meteor! Because, Swift-Tuttle's meteors streak out of the constellation Perseus, they are called "Perseids.
Serious meteor hunters will begin their watch early, on Monday evening, August 11th, around 9 pm when Perseus first rises in the northeast. This is the time to look for Perseid Earthgrazers--meteors that approach from the horizon and skim the atmosphere overhead like a stone skipping across the surface of a pond." (NASA Science News http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/ )
Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for regular updates. Links can be found on my web page.
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