Propagation Summary
Conditions have remained fairly steady during February, except for 11-14th when the A index peaked at 13 and the K at 3. This had settled back to normal by the 18th, with the A Index mainly at 5 and the K Index at 2. March, however, will start off with a similar burst of Solar activity. The Solar Flux is now definitely on the up and should once again reach the 90 mark for up to 6 days from around 7th March.
(http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/)
Solar Activity Could Disrupt the 2012 Olympics On February 12th, scientists warned that a peak in solar activity is due to occur in 2012, risking the disruption of television and internet networks during the London Olympic Games. "The Olympics could be bang in the middle of a solar maximum," said Richard Harrison, of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Oxfordshire, speaking before the launch this week of Nasa's Solar Dynamics Observatory. It has long been known that surges in solar activity can cause disruption in satellite and terrestrial communications systems, but, until now, it has been almost impossible to predict solar storms in advance. Following the launch of Nasa's solar observatory, scientists now say that they will be able to give warning of magnetic storms and solar flares. By turning off sensitive electronic circuits before a storm, damage to satellite transmitters, and the resulting disruption, could be minimised. The Nasa probe, launched in early February from Cape Canaveral, will spend five years in orbit around the Earth, investigating the causes of extreme activity, such as sun spots, solar winds and violent eruptions from the Sun's atmosphere known as coronal mass ejections. Professor Harrison said "Such events can expose astronauts to deadly particle doses, can disable satellites, cause power grid failures on Earth and disrupt communications,".
Hannah Devlin (The Times) 3 February 2010 via Mike Terry.
GPS Inaccurate During Space Storms. In bad weather, it can be hard to tell where you are. It turns out that your GPS unit may not be entirely sure, either, if the weather in space is bad. It is now known that space weather, specifically electrical disturbances in our planet's ionosphere can throw off the accuracy of GPS units appreciably. Scientists are working to remedy the situation. GPS units calculate their locations by analyzing signals from a dedicated group of satellites, but those signals can be delayed or distorted while passing through the ionosphere, explained Anthea Coster, an atmospheric scientist at MIT. During sunspot activity, the inaccuracy can exceed 32 yards (30 meters). "People think the problem has been solved, but they have been lulled because the 11-year sunspot cycle is currently at its minimum," she told SPACE.com. "That will change in about two years." Excited by sunspots, the ionosphere has been known to produce "fingers" of heavy ionization nearly 150 miles wide extending from Florida across Canada to the North Pole, she said: Space storms, sometimes caused by sunspot activity, are also known to zap cell towers, causing dropped calls. Strong solar flares can disrupt all types of communications on Earth, including GPS, and even disable satellites.
(Full article at: http://www.livescience.com/space/080618-tw-gps-space-weather.html)
All About Solar Flares A solar flare is a thunderous explosion that occurs in the solar corona and chromosphere within the atmosphere of the Sun. The incredible energy level of a solar flare is equivalent to tens of millions of atomic bombs exploding at the same time! Solar flares were first known to be occurring in 1859. Solar flare activity can vary from several per day to only a few a month, depending mostly upon the overall activity of the Sun as a whole. Solar activity generally varies on an 11-year cycle. At the peak of this “solar cycle” there are typically more sunspots on the surface of the Sun, which ultimately leads to more frequently occurring solar flares. Solar flares are typically classified as A, B, C, M or X, depending upon the degree of their peak flux. Most solar flares occur in or around sun spots as the result of intense magnetic fields emerging from the Sun’s surface into the corona. The powerful energy commonly associated with solar flares can take as long as several days to build up, but only minutes to release. During the occurrence of a solar flare, plasma is heated to tens of millions degrees, while electrons, protons and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. Solar flares produce electromagnetic radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths from long-wave radio to the shortest wavelength Gamma rays. Solar flares cannot typically be detected by the naked eye from the surface of the earth. (From: http://www.space.com/solar-flares/)
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for updates.
Friday, 26 February 2010
Friday, 29 January 2010
February '10
Propagation Forecast
Conditions have remained calm during January, except for a minor disturbance on 20 January caused by Sunspot 1039 which emerged on the far side of the sun on the 19th. Conditions are likely to remain calm until February 16th when a similar disturbance may affect radio propagation. Maximum A index will be 10, returning to the norm of 5 within 2 days. The Boulder K index has remained at 2 during the last 4 weeks rising by 1 point during sunspot activity. The solar Flux is now on a steady upward trend, rising to 84 by 16th February. This is a definite sign of Solar cycle 24 emerging at last. Maximum usablefrequencies during February should remain at between 6 and 7 MHz. http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
Solar Conditions and Global Temperatures
In This NASA article, John Hansen, director of GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) explains a link between Global temperatures and Solar activity.
“Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade , due to strong cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean 2009 saw a return to near-record global temperatures. The past year was only a fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest year on record, and tied with a cluster of other years -- 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 -- as the second warmest year since record keeping began.
A deep solar minimum has made sunspots a rarity in the last few years. Such lulls in solar activity, which can cause the total amount of energy given off by the sun to decrease by about a tenth of a percent, typically spur surface temperature to dip slightly. Overall, solar minimums and maximums are thought to produce no more than 0.1°C (0.18°F) of cooling or warming.
“In 2009, it was clear that even the deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data hasn’t stopped global warming from continuing,” said Hansen. (From: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html)
Geomagnetic Storm Levels
The Boulder K Index is the best indicator of solar activity.
Geomagnetic storm levels are determined by the estimated 3-hourly Planetary K-indices which are that are derived in real time from a network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers. Geomagnetic storm level. During 2009, the K Index has occasionally reached 5 and will probably exceed this during 2010, as we enter Solar Cycle 24.
Planetary K
Indices Geomagnetic/Storm Level
K=5 G1
K=6 G2
K=7 G3
K=8 G4
K=9 G5
http://www.nohr.com
Solar Flare Images
The Scientific front Line website shows video images of a Solar Flare in 2003 recorded by the SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Satellite. These are similar to the solar activity we can expect from Solar Cycle 24. ( http://www.sflorg.com/spaceweather/news/sw041808_01.html )
Meteor Showers in 2010
Meteor showers are produced by small fragments of cosmic debris entering the earth's atmosphere at extremely high speed. Apart from being used in ham radio circles, meteor scatter communications is also used in professional and commercial radio communications applications. It provides a relatively low cost and reliable form of radio communication for medium distances provided that real time data transfer is not required. It is used for radio communications applications such as sending data from remote weather stations and for oil rigs where it provides a useful element of their data communications structure.
2010 began with the intense but brief Quadrantid maximum (January 3/4). The Lyrids past mid-April (max: April 22/23) will raise meteor rates for several nights. The Eta Aquarids (max: May 7/8) enrich late nights of May's first half, sometimes substantially. February, March, and April evenings have another notable feature. An unusual number of sporadic fireballs come in this interval, possibly one every few nights. June to mid-July has fair rates. The last half of July has rates increasing steadily as the Delta Aquarids (July 29/30) and Alpha Capricornids (July 27-28) have maxima at month's end. Even the Perseids are beginning to show a little. Overall, late July to mid-August is very rich in meteors. The Perseid maximum, just before mid-August (August 12/13), is fairly prolonged and quite rich. (http://www.amsmeteors.org/showers.html )
Conditions have remained calm during January, except for a minor disturbance on 20 January caused by Sunspot 1039 which emerged on the far side of the sun on the 19th. Conditions are likely to remain calm until February 16th when a similar disturbance may affect radio propagation. Maximum A index will be 10, returning to the norm of 5 within 2 days. The Boulder K index has remained at 2 during the last 4 weeks rising by 1 point during sunspot activity. The solar Flux is now on a steady upward trend, rising to 84 by 16th February. This is a definite sign of Solar cycle 24 emerging at last. Maximum usablefrequencies during February should remain at between 6 and 7 MHz. http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml
Solar Conditions and Global Temperatures
In This NASA article, John Hansen, director of GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) explains a link between Global temperatures and Solar activity.
“Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade , due to strong cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean 2009 saw a return to near-record global temperatures. The past year was only a fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest year on record, and tied with a cluster of other years -- 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 -- as the second warmest year since record keeping began.
A deep solar minimum has made sunspots a rarity in the last few years. Such lulls in solar activity, which can cause the total amount of energy given off by the sun to decrease by about a tenth of a percent, typically spur surface temperature to dip slightly. Overall, solar minimums and maximums are thought to produce no more than 0.1°C (0.18°F) of cooling or warming.
“In 2009, it was clear that even the deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data hasn’t stopped global warming from continuing,” said Hansen. (From: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html)
Geomagnetic Storm Levels
The Boulder K Index is the best indicator of solar activity.
Geomagnetic storm levels are determined by the estimated 3-hourly Planetary K-indices which are that are derived in real time from a network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers. Geomagnetic storm level. During 2009, the K Index has occasionally reached 5 and will probably exceed this during 2010, as we enter Solar Cycle 24.
Planetary K
Indices Geomagnetic/Storm Level
K=5 G1
K=6 G2
K=7 G3
K=8 G4
K=9 G5
http://www.nohr.com
Solar Flare Images
The Scientific front Line website shows video images of a Solar Flare in 2003 recorded by the SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Satellite. These are similar to the solar activity we can expect from Solar Cycle 24. ( http://www.sflorg.com/spaceweather/news/sw041808_01.html )
Meteor Showers in 2010
Meteor showers are produced by small fragments of cosmic debris entering the earth's atmosphere at extremely high speed. Apart from being used in ham radio circles, meteor scatter communications is also used in professional and commercial radio communications applications. It provides a relatively low cost and reliable form of radio communication for medium distances provided that real time data transfer is not required. It is used for radio communications applications such as sending data from remote weather stations and for oil rigs where it provides a useful element of their data communications structure.
2010 began with the intense but brief Quadrantid maximum (January 3/4). The Lyrids past mid-April (max: April 22/23) will raise meteor rates for several nights. The Eta Aquarids (max: May 7/8) enrich late nights of May's first half, sometimes substantially. February, March, and April evenings have another notable feature. An unusual number of sporadic fireballs come in this interval, possibly one every few nights. June to mid-July has fair rates. The last half of July has rates increasing steadily as the Delta Aquarids (July 29/30) and Alpha Capricornids (July 27-28) have maxima at month's end. Even the Perseids are beginning to show a little. Overall, late July to mid-August is very rich in meteors. The Perseid maximum, just before mid-August (August 12/13), is fairly prolonged and quite rich. (http://www.amsmeteors.org/showers.html )
Friday, 1 January 2010
Propagation January 2010
Propagation Forecast
January is likely to remain fairly calm with the Boulder A index remaining at 5 and the K index at 2 throughout the month. The Solar flux will start at 80 and should drop to 76 by the end of the month. The http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml Maximum Useable frequencies Western Europe for daylight hours in January are 6-7 MHz. http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html
2009 has seen a total of 209 days of zero sunspot activity (71%), according to Spaceweather.com and is estimated to be the 5th most spotless year since 1849. http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/category/sunspots/
Solar Cycle Prediction
A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Predicting the behaviour of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs. Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance. A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.
Of these "geomagnetic precursor" techniques three stand out. The earliest is from Ohl and Ohl [Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, Vol. II. 258 (1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic A index at its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the geomagnetic A index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the prediction isn't available until the sunspot cycle has started.
An alternative method is due to a process suggested by Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic A index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. This remaining signal faithfully represents the sunspot numbers several years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs near sunspot minimum and is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time of sunspot minimum.
A third method is due to Richard Thompson [Solar Physics 148, 383 (1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.
From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 8 December 2009
Sunspot Plotter
Here is a web page where you can go to a specific date and get sunspot data to compare reception conditions with the Solar conditions at the time.
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates
January is likely to remain fairly calm with the Boulder A index remaining at 5 and the K index at 2 throughout the month. The Solar flux will start at 80 and should drop to 76 by the end of the month. The http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml Maximum Useable frequencies Western Europe for daylight hours in January are 6-7 MHz. http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html
2009 has seen a total of 209 days of zero sunspot activity (71%), according to Spaceweather.com and is estimated to be the 5th most spotless year since 1849. http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/category/sunspots/
Solar Cycle Prediction
A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Predicting the behaviour of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs. Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance. A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.
Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.
Of these "geomagnetic precursor" techniques three stand out. The earliest is from Ohl and Ohl [Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, Vol. II. 258 (1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic A index at its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the geomagnetic A index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the prediction isn't available until the sunspot cycle has started.
An alternative method is due to a process suggested by Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic A index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. This remaining signal faithfully represents the sunspot numbers several years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs near sunspot minimum and is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time of sunspot minimum.
A third method is due to Richard Thompson [Solar Physics 148, 383 (1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.
From: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 8 December 2009
Sunspot Plotter
Here is a web page where you can go to a specific date and get sunspot data to compare reception conditions with the Solar conditions at the time.
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm
Thanks to Mike Terry and Ken Fletcher for regular updates
Sunday, 25 October 2009
November '09
Propagation Forecast
Sunspot activity has once again died down, apart from a minor sunspot on 20 October which has made little difference to the calm conditions which will remain until at least mid November. The Solar Flux will remain at a maximum of 72, and is likely to drop as low as 69, returning to 72 by the 15th. The Boulder A and K indicies will also remain at a steady 5 and 2 repectively during early November. Following speculation new sunspot activity, there has not been any major sunspot activity so far. (From http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml )
On 24 October, the NOAA 45 day forecast predicts nothing significant, even up to early December 09: ( www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/102345DF.txt ) Most long term estimates show a steady rise in sunspot activity which peaks in late 2012 but the actual smoothed sunspot estimates show current figures to be lower than estimated. (http://solarcycle24.com/ )
The Boulder K Index seems to be the best indicator of HF reception conditions. A reading of 3 or under usually indicates calm conditions but 5 or over usually means a noticeable disturbance on the bands.
( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/k-index.html )
The K7RA Update
“A tiny Solar Cycle 24 sunspot group -- numbered 1028 -- emerged briefly on Tuesday, October 20, and then was gone. This is another brief phantom sunspot, teasing us with hints of the expected increase in activity that never seems to manifest. Of course, the silver lining in the low solar activity is low geomagnetic activity. While folks in Alaska miss dramatic aurora, HF hams in the northern latitudes can enjoy the bands without all the disruption that comes with geomagnetic storms.
Sunspot numbers for October 15-21 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11 and 0 with a mean of 1.6. The 10.7 cm flux was 70.4, 69.6, 70.7, 70.1, 70.9, 71 and 71.3 with a mean of 70.6. The estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1 and 1 with a mean of 2. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0 and 1 with a mean of 1.1. Franta Janda, OK1HH, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group expects a bit higher activity, with quiet conditions for October 23 and unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions for October 24-25.
A couple of coronal holes are spewing enough plasma to activate some aurora, but remember that most of the photos you see of beautiful displays in the sky are actually very long exposures taken from a rock-steady tripod mount; many times, the unaided eye cannot perceive the more dramatic details. As a result of solar wind from coronal holes, geomagnetic indices rose yesterday, on Thursday, with planetary A index at 14, mid-latitude A index as measured in Virginia at 12 and the College A index at Fairbanks, Alaska way up to 25.
The College A index has been quiet for a long time; the last time the index was nearly this high was on August 30, 2009 at 24. Prior College A index readings higher than Thursday's were July 22, 2009 at 27, February 4, 2009 at 36, December 6, 2008 at 26 and November 8, 2008 at 30.”
(From Tad Cooke: http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2009/10/23/11162/?nc=1 )
Forecast Of Next Sunspot Cycle
In 2006, scientists predicted that the next cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.
By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The researchers expect that predicting the Sun's cycles years in advance will lead to more accurate plans for solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems. The team has verified the information by using the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based in part on observations from NASA instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use ultrasound to see inside a patient.
The programme’s director, Paul Bellaire said, "Important discoveries are being made using helioseismology. Through this technique, we can image even the far side of the Sun."
Links to this months articles can be found at http://www.jameswelsh.org.uk/.
Thanks to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry for updates during 2009. The next Propagation report will be in January 2010.
Saturday, 26 September 2009
October '09
Propagation Forecast
There has actually been some noticeable sunspot activity during September with the Solar flux climbing from the usual 72 to 77, on the 26th where it will remain until 5th October, when it will actually drop down to 69, followed by another rise to at least 74 by the 19th October. If this 20 day trend continues, we should see another peak by early November. The Boulder A index has remained at a steady 5 but has suddenly peaked at 12 on 26 September but settled back to 5 by the 12th. The Boulder K index has remained at 2 but also peaked at 4 on 26th September and again settled back to the ‘norm’ of 2 by the end of September. (WM7d.net). According to the solar charts at http://www.solarcycle24.com the average sunspot numbers will continue to remain at ‘floor level’ during the first quarter of 2010. HF signal path propagation tables can be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html
Solar Weather Predictions
The NW7US Space Weather\Propagation Podcast. No sunspots by 2015?
In this episode, Amateur Radio Operator, Tomas David Hood (NW7US) discusses with Dr. Penn of the National Solar Observatory the startling yet convincing trend revealed in research of magnetic strengths of sunspots over the last thirteen years. The trend indicates a strong possibility, if the trend continues, that sunspots will disappear by the year 2015! Click Here. You can also access previous podcasts at: http://podcast.hfradio.org/ .
“In 2012, The Sun will be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, called "solar maximum", so we can expect a lot of solar activity. Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 (remember all those record breaking X-class flares?). Solar physicists are already getting excited about this next cycle and new prediction methods are being put to good use.
An earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there, but let's have a look at what really happens during an Earth-directed solar flare event. The Earth is actually very well protected, although some satellites may not be.
The Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth may be unlucky enough to be staring down the barrel of an explosion with the energy of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar flare and the effects of which can cause problems here on earth.”
(From: http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/21/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/ )
There is another website by Patrick Geryl which forecasts a disastrous solar storm in 2012! http://www.howtosurvive2012.com
Solar Data Used To Forecast Weather on Earth
Terrestrial weather forecasts using Solar Data are now available on the internet. The technique uses predictable aspects of solar activity - particle and magnetic effects from the Sun - as the basis for forecasting weather many months and even years in advance. Weather Action long-range forecasts are produced using Piers Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique which he says is “the most advanced and reliable long-range forecasting system in the world.” Forecasts can be downloaded for a fee but previous forecasts are available in their archive at: http://www.weatheraction.com
There has actually been some noticeable sunspot activity during September with the Solar flux climbing from the usual 72 to 77, on the 26th where it will remain until 5th October, when it will actually drop down to 69, followed by another rise to at least 74 by the 19th October. If this 20 day trend continues, we should see another peak by early November. The Boulder A index has remained at a steady 5 but has suddenly peaked at 12 on 26 September but settled back to 5 by the 12th. The Boulder K index has remained at 2 but also peaked at 4 on 26th September and again settled back to the ‘norm’ of 2 by the end of September. (WM7d.net). According to the solar charts at http://www.solarcycle24.com the average sunspot numbers will continue to remain at ‘floor level’ during the first quarter of 2010. HF signal path propagation tables can be found at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html
Solar Weather Predictions
The NW7US Space Weather\Propagation Podcast. No sunspots by 2015?
In this episode, Amateur Radio Operator, Tomas David Hood (NW7US) discusses with Dr. Penn of the National Solar Observatory the startling yet convincing trend revealed in research of magnetic strengths of sunspots over the last thirteen years. The trend indicates a strong possibility, if the trend continues, that sunspots will disappear by the year 2015! Click Here. You can also access previous podcasts at: http://podcast.hfradio.org/ .
“In 2012, The Sun will be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, called "solar maximum", so we can expect a lot of solar activity. Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 (remember all those record breaking X-class flares?). Solar physicists are already getting excited about this next cycle and new prediction methods are being put to good use.
An earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there, but let's have a look at what really happens during an Earth-directed solar flare event. The Earth is actually very well protected, although some satellites may not be.
The Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth may be unlucky enough to be staring down the barrel of an explosion with the energy of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar flare and the effects of which can cause problems here on earth.”
(From: http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/21/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/ )
There is another website by Patrick Geryl which forecasts a disastrous solar storm in 2012! http://www.howtosurvive2012.com
Solar Data Used To Forecast Weather on Earth
Terrestrial weather forecasts using Solar Data are now available on the internet. The technique uses predictable aspects of solar activity - particle and magnetic effects from the Sun - as the basis for forecasting weather many months and even years in advance. Weather Action long-range forecasts are produced using Piers Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique which he says is “the most advanced and reliable long-range forecasting system in the world.” Forecasts can be downloaded for a fee but previous forecasts are available in their archive at: http://www.weatheraction.com
Friday, 21 August 2009
September '09
Propagation Forecast
At this time, the sun has been blank of official sunspots for over 41 days (www.solarcycle24.com)
The calm Solar Terrestrial conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. According to the NOAA 27 day forecast, the Solar Flux will remain at 68 and the Boulder A index will remain mostly at 5, apart from some minor fluctuations between 2-6 September . The Boulder K Index will remain at 2 except on 2nd and 5th September, which should be only a minor variation of not more than 1 point, so Solar Cycle 24 is not making its presence known so far.
(From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml )
Solar cycle 24 Predictions.
The progressive Sunspot Number prediction chart on the Solar Cycle 24 website appears to be the most accurate long term forecast predicting the next peak to be in 2013: http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm
This prediction has recently been amended: “Radio and Space Services has made a significant change to its forecast for solar cycle 24. The forecast cycle maximum smoothed sunspot number has been dropped from 134 to approximately 90. In addition the time of maximum has been shifted away by one year to September/October 2013. These changes were made due to the protracted solar minimum currently being experienced and the apparent statistical relationship between long solar minimums and lower following solar cycle’s maxima”. (Andy Sennit, Media Network 31 July 2009 via Mike Terry)
See also the Space Weather Prediction Centre: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Optimum Working Frequency Charts. The Western Europe charts can be viewed at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html where you can cross reference the time and frequency with the path and it gives you a percentage. These should be accurate for 80% of the month depending on conditions. Links to other regions are included.
Predicting Space Weather (NASA Article: The Key to Understanding The Sun) “A better understanding of the Sun's magnetic field and its behaviour will allow us to make better predictions of space weather. Observations of magnetic fields associated with solar flares show that flares are likely to occur when the magnetic field lines linking two sunspots become sheared or twisted. Observations of the Sun's magnetic field over the last 20 years illustrates its behaviour over two sunspot cycles. However, predicting long-range behaviour, such as the size of the sunspot cycle, is still based on observing trends and patterns. We hope that in the near future we will understand the Sun well enough to make these predictions based on current conditions and past history using a mathematical model of the actual processes.”
Solar Magnetic Fields. “Magnetism is the key to understanding the Sun. Magnetism, or magnetic field, is produced on the Sun by the flow of electrically charged ions and electrons. Sunspots are places where very intense magnetic lines of force break through the Sun's surface. The sunspot cycle results from the recycling of magnetic fields by the flow of material in the interior. The prominences seen floating above the surface of the Sun are supported, and threaded through, with magnetic fields. The streamers and loops seen in the corona are shaped by magnetic fields. Magnetic fields are at the root of virtually all of the features we see on and above the Sun. Without magnetic fields the Sun would be a rather boring star”.
Measuring Magnetic Fields. “Magnetic forces change the direction of motion of moving charged particles like electrons. Because of this, electrons that orbit around a nucleus in one direction will have more energy than electrons that orbit about the nucleus in the opposite direction. This allows us to remotely measure the Sun's magnetic field by observing the difference in the energy of the light emitted as these electrons jump from orbit to orbit. With the proper instrumentation we can determine both the strength and the direction of the magnetic field all across the surface of the Sun.” ”. (More on this subject at: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/the_key.shtml )
Thanks also to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry. Links can be found at http://www.jameswelsh.org.uk
At this time, the sun has been blank of official sunspots for over 41 days (www.solarcycle24.com)
The calm Solar Terrestrial conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. According to the NOAA 27 day forecast, the Solar Flux will remain at 68 and the Boulder A index will remain mostly at 5, apart from some minor fluctuations between 2-6 September . The Boulder K Index will remain at 2 except on 2nd and 5th September, which should be only a minor variation of not more than 1 point, so Solar Cycle 24 is not making its presence known so far.
(From: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/27d_forecast.shtml )
Solar cycle 24 Predictions.
The progressive Sunspot Number prediction chart on the Solar Cycle 24 website appears to be the most accurate long term forecast predicting the next peak to be in 2013: http://www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm
This prediction has recently been amended: “Radio and Space Services has made a significant change to its forecast for solar cycle 24. The forecast cycle maximum smoothed sunspot number has been dropped from 134 to approximately 90. In addition the time of maximum has been shifted away by one year to September/October 2013. These changes were made due to the protracted solar minimum currently being experienced and the apparent statistical relationship between long solar minimums and lower following solar cycle’s maxima”. (Andy Sennit, Media Network 31 July 2009 via Mike Terry)
See also the Space Weather Prediction Centre: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Optimum Working Frequency Charts. The Western Europe charts can be viewed at: http://hfradio.org/fot_7.html where you can cross reference the time and frequency with the path and it gives you a percentage. These should be accurate for 80% of the month depending on conditions. Links to other regions are included.
Predicting Space Weather (NASA Article: The Key to Understanding The Sun) “A better understanding of the Sun's magnetic field and its behaviour will allow us to make better predictions of space weather. Observations of magnetic fields associated with solar flares show that flares are likely to occur when the magnetic field lines linking two sunspots become sheared or twisted. Observations of the Sun's magnetic field over the last 20 years illustrates its behaviour over two sunspot cycles. However, predicting long-range behaviour, such as the size of the sunspot cycle, is still based on observing trends and patterns. We hope that in the near future we will understand the Sun well enough to make these predictions based on current conditions and past history using a mathematical model of the actual processes.”
Solar Magnetic Fields. “Magnetism is the key to understanding the Sun. Magnetism, or magnetic field, is produced on the Sun by the flow of electrically charged ions and electrons. Sunspots are places where very intense magnetic lines of force break through the Sun's surface. The sunspot cycle results from the recycling of magnetic fields by the flow of material in the interior. The prominences seen floating above the surface of the Sun are supported, and threaded through, with magnetic fields. The streamers and loops seen in the corona are shaped by magnetic fields. Magnetic fields are at the root of virtually all of the features we see on and above the Sun. Without magnetic fields the Sun would be a rather boring star”.
Measuring Magnetic Fields. “Magnetic forces change the direction of motion of moving charged particles like electrons. Because of this, electrons that orbit around a nucleus in one direction will have more energy than electrons that orbit about the nucleus in the opposite direction. This allows us to remotely measure the Sun's magnetic field by observing the difference in the energy of the light emitted as these electrons jump from orbit to orbit. With the proper instrumentation we can determine both the strength and the direction of the magnetic field all across the surface of the Sun.” ”. (More on this subject at: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/the_key.shtml )
Thanks also to Ken Fletcher and Mike Terry. Links can be found at http://www.jameswelsh.org.uk
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