Friday, 24 August 2012

August 2012

Propagation Summary

Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels during late July.  Highest activity occurred on the 19th with an M7 flare and a partial halo coronal mass ejection.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Activity on 16 July began at major storm levels and decreased to unsettled levels as the day passed. Quieter to unsettled conditions followed by the 20th.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

The first half of August will see very low solar activity, but with a slight chance of major flare activity from 30 July to 13 August. The Solar flux is expected to be normal to moderate and on 3-5 august and on 11-15.  Higher levels could prevail on 6010 August.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods up to 20th August.

Solar cycle Prediction

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. 

Meteor showers

Perseid Meteor showers are forecast from 30 July-18 August, peaking on 12-13th.



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