February 2013

Propagation Summary.
Sunspot activity was predominantly at low levels with very low levels observed on 17 January. The largest flares of the period were on 07 and 11 January which was a c5 flare.  Then on 16 January, a long duration C2 flare occurred.  The Solar Flux was at moderate levels on 14-16 January and again on 19-20^th.  High levels were observed n response to a shock arrival from a Coronal Mass ejection on 13 January. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active. 

Forecast for Solar and Geomagnetic Activity until 16 February

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels until 30 January.  A chance for M-class flares exists from 31 January through to 15 February.  By 16 February, very low to low levels are expected.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels until 23 January, then on 24-25 January there is a chance of an increase to high levels.  Low to normal levels should then prevail 26 January to 9 February until the end of the forecast period.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through the forecast period with unsettled periods expected on 23 January and 9-10 February.

From: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt

 

Sun to Skip Solar Cycle 25?

According to three independent studies of the Sun's interior, visible surface and corona, solar cycle 25 will have significantly reduced activity, or may not even appear at all. “This is highly unusual and unexpected,” says Frank Hill, associated director of the National Solar Observatory's (NSO) Solar Synoptic Network. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”  You can read this article in full by Dr Emily Baldwyn of Astronomy Now Magazine at: http://www.astronomynow.com/news/n1106/15solar/