Friday, 26 January 2018

January 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was generally at ‘background’ levels during the second half of December, although the Solar flux reached high levels on 12-17 December, followed by moderate levels from 18 December.
The Geomagnetic Field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during December, with the exception of the 12th when solar Winds increased, but quite conditions prevailed for the remainder of December.

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance of C Class Solar flares during the forecast period.
The Solar flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels until January 14th, then at higher levels from 16-19 January with possible storm conditions.

Geomagnetic field will be quiet to active on January 6 – 7, active to disturbed on December 21 - 22, January 4 – 5 and quiet on January 10 – 11.
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 2 – 7.
From: Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, Czech Propagation Interested Group via

Sunspot numbers have been on a steep downward trend during the second half of 2016.  There have been a total of 32 spotless days.  During December sunspot numbers have dropped to 20, compared to the forecast level of 45.  These are the lowest levels since 2010.  The current Solar Cycle number 24 is forecast to start in 2020, peaking in 2025.  There is now a new method of calculating sunspot numbers which was introduced in 2015, and it results in less peaking on the prediction charts.  More information can be found at:

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