Friday, 26 January 2018

October 2016

Propagation Summary
September started off with fairly quiet conditions with minor disturbances around 4-7, 13, 19 and 20th.   September 28-30th were the most disturbed days of the month with the Solar Flux reaching 95 and the Boulder K index peaking at 6.   This was due to high solar wind enhancements associated with coronal Hole High Speed Streams.

Propagation Forecast up to 15 October
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares over the period. 
The Solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams.
Solar flux levels are expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 1 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.  Active conditions are expected on 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period. The quietest days should be October 7-15. ( )

Meteor Showers.
There are some minor meteor showers forecast: October 7, the Draconids and October 21, before dawn, the Orionids.

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