June2020

Propagation Summary

The month of May started with very low solar activity.  There were some minor non-earth directed coronal Mass Ejections at the end of April, which had faded by May 8 followed by mainly quiet conditions until 29 May when an M1 solar Flare occurred at 0724 UTC.

The solar flux was mainly at normal to moderate levels during May,

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of isolated unsettled periods observed on 06 and 10 May. https://bit.ly/2wLPiHV

Solar cycle 25 News

“925 days. That is the amount of time we had to wait since we last saw an M-class solar flare on the Sun.  But on 29 May an impulsive M1.19 solar flare (minor R1 radio blackout) took place on the Sun 07:24 UTC. This is the first M-class solar flare from a sunspot region belonging to Solar Cycle 25 and could even be the first M-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 depending if we have passed solar minimum or not.”  More information is available at:  www.SpaceWeatherLive.com

plus, you can also join the Space Weather Live group on Facebook.

Propagation Forecast until 20 June

Apart from an M1 solar flare on 29 May, Solar activity is expected to continue at predominantly very low levels.

The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to isolated unsettled levels through the outlook period.  My new web address for propagation links is: www.jameswelsh.me

April 2020

Propagation April 2020

Solar activity was generally very low during March.  No earth directed CME’s were observed during the reporting period.   The solar Flux reached moderate levels each day of the period.

Geomagnetic activity reached active levels on 19 March with unsettled levels 16. 18 to 22 March in response to Coronal High Speed Streams (CHSS) influence.

Quiet conditions were observed from 17 March

Propagation Forecast until 18 April

Lyrrid Meteor Showers are due from 13-29 April, peaking at 21-22 April and are said to be the top 5 for meteor shower propagation on the 2-6 meter bans https://bit.ly3bsiLJy

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.  The Solar flux is expected to reach moderate levels throughout the period in response to recurrent CH HSS influence

Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels on 27 March and 15 April, with unsettled conditions anticipated for 27-29 March and 15-18 April, due to CH HSS effects.  Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period   https://biy.ly2wLPiHY

March 2020

Propagation Summary

The sun has been blank (no sunspots for 36 consecutive days.  This is a sign that that solar minimum is still underway despite recent signs of life from Solar Cycle 25.  During Solar Minimum, auroras are confined mainly to the Arctic.    The next episode will have occurred on 2-3 March, when a minor stream of solar wind reached earth.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

The NOAA/ NASA solar prediction panel predicts solar minimum to occurring in April 2020 (+/+ six months.  The panel agreed that cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to solar cycle 24 with a peak on July 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115 which would make Solar cycle 25 very similar to solar cycles 24.  http://bit.ly/2T6mlJw

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on 29 Feb to 2 March due to a minor stream of solar wind.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely until 18-2 o March when another minor event is forecast.

The Geomagnetic field is forecast to be at quiet to active levels on 1-2 March followed by quiet to unsettled conditions until March 18-20 when quiet to active conditions are likely.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

February 2020

Propagation Summary

Following quite conditions in December, sunspots appeared on December 24-26. On January 2 NOAA reported  a new sunspot, but this appears to be part of Solar Cycle 24.  No major events have been reported until Jan 26

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mainly very low with a slight chance for C class solar flare activity. 

The solar flux is expected to reach 72 from Jan 26 to Feb 7 and 72 on Feb 8-16 .

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-05 Feb in response to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream influence followed by similar conditions for the rest of the outlook period. (ARRL.org)

 The NOAA/NASA international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus is a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7^th longest on record (11.4 years).

February 2019

Propagation Summary
January started off with very low levels of solar activity increasing to low levels on Jan 6 due to an isolated C1 flare.  Very low levels returned until 24-25 Jan

The Solar flux was at normal levels on 1-4 Jan increasing to high levels on 6-10 Jan due to the C1 flare then moderate levels prevailed until 13 Jan. Another similar event occurred on 24-25 Jan followed by moderate levels...

The Geomagnetic Field was at quiet to G1 minor storm levels until 5 Jan when minor storm levels were observed returning to quiet to unsettled levels by 6 Jan, followed by quiet levels on 8-10 Jan.  The Solar wind increased on 11 Jan and by 12 Jan levels were quiet.  Solar wind then increased on 24-25 Jan producing a G1 magnetic storm. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected until the end of January

Propagation Forecast until 16 February
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period. 
The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 28 Jan-01Feb and 07-16 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 02-06 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active on 31 Jan-03 Feb due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity Coronal Hole High speed Stream. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at predominately quiet levels.  http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

January 2019

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally very low during late November with the Solar Flux at background levels, and the Geomagnetic Field ranged from quiet to unsettled.

A B type Solar Flare was forecast on 5 December but this did not materialise. There was also minor sunspot activity with a B1 flare on 14 Decembe5, and then conditions remained quiet for the remainder of December

The Solar flux was high on 6 and 8-9 Dec followed by normal levels until high levels were reached on 10 Dec conditions followed by quiet conditions.

The Geomagnetic Field was generally quiet to unsettled except on 10-11 followed by mainly quiet conditions

Propagation Forecast until January 19

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to reach high levels on 8-12 Jan with moderate levels forecast for 3-5 Jan. Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 4 Jan due to Coronal Hole High Speed streams. Quiet to unsettled or generally quiet conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Propagation conditions should generally remain the same as December with possible variations on 4 and 16 January.   http://bit.ly/dxlatest

November 2018

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was very low during October, apart from minor sunspot activity on 12-14 October with no earth directed coronal mass ejections observed..

The solar flux reached high levels on 08-13 and 16-20 Oct with moderate levels observed during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10 and 13 Oct, active conditions on 08-09 Oct, unsettled levels on 11 Oct, and quiet conditions on 12 and 14 and 15 Oct due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity followed by quiet conditions.

Propagation Forecast until 17 November

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

The Solar flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-09 and 12-16 Nov with moderate flux levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03-04 Nov with active levels expected on 05-06 Nov due to the influence of recurrent Coronal Hole high speed streams.

Latest updates can be found at the NOAA website: http://bit.ly/NOA7Day