November 2016

Propagation Summary

on 07 Oct Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on Oct 10-11, 16-18.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled to active 03-05 Oct. A minor storm was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with unsettled and active periods 07 and 08 Oct. The enhanced activity was due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled conditions prevailed 11-18 October

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.   The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov, increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. A lesser disturbance is likely on 11-12 November.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.  

The quietest days, propagation –wise are likely to be November 2-10.  http://bit.ly/27dayprop

Meteor Showers 

November 4-5 2016, South Taurids, November 11-12 2016 North Taurids, November 16-17, 2016 Leonids. December 13-14, 2016 Geminids.  http://bit.ly/meteor16

The next propagation report will be in January.  Regular updates are posted on the BDXC News email group via Mike Terry. You can also subscribe to email alerts here: http://bit.ly/Propalert

October 2016

Propagation Summary
September started off with fairly quiet conditions with minor disturbances around 4-7, 13, 19 and 20th.   September 28-30th were the most disturbed days of the month with the Solar Flux reaching 95 and the Boulder K index peaking at 6.   This was due to high solar wind enhancements associated with coronal Hole High Speed Streams.

Propagation Forecast up to 15 October
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares over the period. 
The Solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams.
Solar flux levels are expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 1 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.  Active conditions are expected on 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period. The quietest days should be October 7-15. ( http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

Meteor Showers.
There are some minor meteor showers forecast: October 7, the Draconids and October 21, before dawn, the Orionids.   http://bit.ly/meteor16

September 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally at low levels from August 15-21, but disturbed conditions prevailed on 24-29.  The Solar Flux was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, and normal levels on 18 August.  The largest flux of the period was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, then normal levels on 18 August. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period observed on 21 August.

Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar wind regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased, then Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20.  The geomagnetic field returned to active levels on 21 August.

Propagation Forecast Up to 17 September

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from August, 29-08 September, 13-14 September, and again on 17 September.  Most disturbed days are likely to be

August 29 –September 6 (Peaking on August 30-31) then relatively calm conditions should prevail from the September 9-17, with the possible exception of slight disturbances on 8, 13 and 17 September.  https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/list27do.html

August 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was at very low levels from 11-14 July with only a few simple sunspot regions.  

A sunspot group emerged on 15-17 July producing 13 C Class flares, the largest of which was late on the 17 July.

The Solar Flux reached high levels throughout the period, particularly on 17 July at 1630.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The majority of the period was under the influence of high speed solar wind streams from a large coronal hole peaking on 12 July causing minor storm levels. The rest of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels with quiet conditions observed on 17 July.

Propagation Forecast up to 13 August

Low levels of solar activity are expected, with a chance of M-Class flares from 5-13 August.

The solar Flux is forecast at high levels from 5-13 August due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remaining forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 minor storm levels 3-4 and 8 august, causing

unsettled to active levels. 

HF propagation is likely to be affected mostly on 3, 4 and 8 August with the possibility of radio black outs. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor Showers

The Perseids are likely to occur on 12-13 August. Details at: http://bit.ly/perseid16

Thanks to Mike Terry for regular updates

July 2016

Propagation Summary

On June 17, the RSGB reported good reception on 6 Metres, but the rest of the HF band has been disturbed by Coronal Hole activity, particularly on 14-15 June.  Sporadic E conditions, however, have produced some good VHF propagation, mainly on the last week in June

Propagation Forecast up to 16 July

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

The Solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July.  G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.  www.swpc.noaa.gov/   See also, Glenn Hauser’s DX Listening digest at: www.worldofradio.com or bit.ly/dxlatest

Meteor showers in July 2016
Piscis Austrinids:  (Southern Hemisphere shower) Active: July 15 - August 10, Maximum: July 28
Southern Aquariids Active: July 12 - August 23. Maximum: July 30
Capricornids:  Active: July 03 - August 15 Maximum: July 30. 

More details can be found at: bit.ly/meteorprop Also thanks to Mike Terry for updates.
See also The DX Program on Mersey Retro Radio. www,merseyretro.com Fridays to Mondays at 1000 UTC.

June 2016

Propagation Summary
April was an interesting month for space weather with storm conditions on 2, and 7  April , caused by a negative magnetic field (usually causing extreme long skip in affected areas) On April 10, 13 and 18th  the disturbances were caused by fast solar winds. On May 2, Negative magnetic activity was again the cause, and then on May 8, a G3 class solar flare caused the disturbance. (spaceweather.com)

Propagation Forecast
Disturbed conditions are expected on June 2-6, 11-13 and 17-18.  The calmest days will be on 7-9 June and also 18th.  Although there have been many storm conditions lately, sunspot numbers are generally lower than forecast, and Solar Cycle 24 could easily die out before the forecast date of early 2019 if this trend continues, resulting in very little activity during 2018-19.
The same applies to the Solar Flux.  Related information can be found at:  goo.gl/rKPHze

Detailed Maximum Usable Frequency charts can be found on the DX Maps site. Where you can also subscribe to email propagation updates: http://bit.ly/1TG6bCM

The Sporadic E propagation season should also take place in June-July.
Thanks to Mike Terry for email updates.  Links to these articles and more can be found at: www.jameswelsh.org.uk

April 2016

Propagation Summary
Following disturbed conditions on March16 and17, caused by a high-speed solar wind stream flowing from a geo-effective coronal hole on the sun’s surface, quiet Solar conditions have prevailed for the remaining days of March, with the Solar Flux at 90, The planetary A index at 5, and the K Index at 2.

Propagation Forecast for April
April will start out with disturbed conditions, particularly on April 3 and 4, with the Solar Flux at 90, the A Index at 30 and the K Index at 6, which usually indicates storm conditions.   Calmer conditions should prevail until April 10-14 when storm conditions are likely, but quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from April16th.
( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices )

Meteor Showers in April
The Lyrids are due on April 21-22, but the 2016 showers are forecast to only be 10-15 meteors per hour, which may not be much use for meteor scatter propagation, but in past years these meteor showers have been at the rate of around 100 per hour.
( http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/earthskys-meteor-shower-guide#lyrids )

Radio Propagation Blog
Bob Zanotti and Bob Thomer, known as the 2 Bobs on Swiss Radio Internetional have done a number of podcasts on switzerlandinsound.com , featuring some re-recordings and some original programming of their long running Dx programme.  An interesting edition about shortwave propagation can be found here
The next propagation report will be in June. Links to propagation articles can be found on my propagation links page at : www.jameswelsh.org.uk