February 2017

Propagation Summary

The first week in January features zero sunspots, but between Jan 12-18, the average daily sunspot number rose to 22.6. Solar activity was at low levels due to C Class solar flares on 21-22 January. The rest of the period was at very low levels.  No earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed. The solar flux was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on Jan 16-17, and 20-22 January.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Early on 18 January, solar wind speed began to increase as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became effective.   Wind speed reached a maximum gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 16-17 January, quiet to active levels on 18-19 and 21 January, and quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 22 January.

Propagation Forecast up to 18 February

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 14-18 February. Very low levels are expected on 01-13 February.  

The solar flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 01-13 February, and again on 16-18 February due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01-07 February and 14-18 February with minor geomagnetic storm levels likely on 3 February due to CH HSS effects.  The most disturbed days for propagation in February are likely to be 1-5 and 14^th.
Updates are available at: http://bit.ly/2jEdqR6

January 2017

Propagation Summary
Solar activity was generally at ‘background’ levels during the second half of December, although the Solar flux reached high levels on 12-17 December, followed by moderate levels from 18 December.
The Geomagnetic Field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during December, with the exception of the 12th when solar Winds increased, but quite conditions prevailed for the remainder of December.

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance of C Class Solar flares during the forecast period.
The Solar flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels until January 14th, then at higher levels from 16-19 January with possible storm conditions.

Geomagnetic field will be quiet to active on January 6 – 7, active to disturbed on December 21 - 22, January 4 – 5 and quiet on January 10 – 11.
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January 2 – 7.
From: Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, Czech Propagation Interested Group via http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Sunspot numbers have been on a steep downward trend during the second half of 2016.  There have been a total of 32 spotless days.  During December sunspot numbers have dropped to 20, compared to the forecast level of 45.  These are the lowest levels since 2010.  The current Solar Cycle number 24 is forecast to start in 2020, peaking in 2025.  There is now a new method of calculating sunspot numbers which was introduced in 2015, and it results in less peaking on the prediction charts.  More information can be found at: http://bit.ly/2hBFp55

December 2016

Propagation Summary
on 07 Oct Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on Oct 10-11, 16-18.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled to active 03-05 Oct. A minor storm was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with unsettled and active periods 07 and 08 Oct. The enhanced activity was due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled conditions prevailed 11-18 October
Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.   The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov, increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. A lesser disturbance is likely on 11-12 November.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 
The quietest days, propagation –wise are likely to be November 2-10.  http://bit.ly/27dayprop

Meteor Showers 
November 4-5 2016, South Taurids, November 11-12 2016 North Taurids, November 16-17, 2016 Leonids. December 13-14, 2016 Geminids.  http://bit.ly/meteor16
The next propagation report will be in January.  Regular updates are posted on the BDXC News email group via Mike Terry. You can also subscribe to email alerts here: http://bit.ly/Propalert

November 2016

Propagation Summary

on 07 Oct Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed.  The Solar Flux was at high levels on Oct 10-11, 16-18.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled to active 03-05 Oct. A minor storm was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with unsettled and active periods 07 and 08 Oct. The enhanced activity was due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled conditions prevailed 11-18 October

Propagation Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.   The solar flux is expected to be at high levels on 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov, increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. A lesser disturbance is likely on 11-12 November.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.  

The quietest days, propagation –wise are likely to be November 2-10.  http://bit.ly/27dayprop

Meteor Showers 

November 4-5 2016, South Taurids, November 11-12 2016 North Taurids, November 16-17, 2016 Leonids. December 13-14, 2016 Geminids.  http://bit.ly/meteor16

The next propagation report will be in January.  Regular updates are posted on the BDXC News email group via Mike Terry. You can also subscribe to email alerts here: http://bit.ly/Propalert

October 2016

Propagation Summary
September started off with fairly quiet conditions with minor disturbances around 4-7, 13, 19 and 20th.   September 28-30th were the most disturbed days of the month with the Solar Flux reaching 95 and the Boulder K index peaking at 6.   This was due to high solar wind enhancements associated with coronal Hole High Speed Streams.

Propagation Forecast up to 15 October
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares over the period. 
The Solar flux is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams.
Solar flux levels are expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 1 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.  Active conditions are expected on 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period. The quietest days should be October 7-15. ( http://bit.ly/dxlatest )

Meteor Showers.
There are some minor meteor showers forecast: October 7, the Draconids and October 21, before dawn, the Orionids.   http://bit.ly/meteor16

September 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was generally at low levels from August 15-21, but disturbed conditions prevailed on 24-29.  The Solar Flux was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, and normal levels on 18 August.  The largest flux of the period was at moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August, then normal levels on 18 August. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period observed on 21 August.

Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar wind regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased, then Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20.  The geomagnetic field returned to active levels on 21 August.

Propagation Forecast Up to 17 September

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.  The Solar Flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from August, 29-08 September, 13-14 September, and again on 17 September.  Most disturbed days are likely to be

August 29 –September 6 (Peaking on August 30-31) then relatively calm conditions should prevail from the September 9-17, with the possible exception of slight disturbances on 8, 13 and 17 September.  https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/list27do.html

August 2016

Propagation Summary

Solar activity was at very low levels from 11-14 July with only a few simple sunspot regions.  

A sunspot group emerged on 15-17 July producing 13 C Class flares, the largest of which was late on the 17 July.

The Solar Flux reached high levels throughout the period, particularly on 17 July at 1630.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. The majority of the period was under the influence of high speed solar wind streams from a large coronal hole peaking on 12 July causing minor storm levels. The rest of the period was at quiet to unsettled levels with quiet conditions observed on 17 July.

Propagation Forecast up to 13 August

Low levels of solar activity are expected, with a chance of M-Class flares from 5-13 August.

The solar Flux is forecast at high levels from 5-13 August due to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream activity.  Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remaining forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 minor storm levels 3-4 and 8 august, causing

unsettled to active levels. 

HF propagation is likely to be affected mostly on 3, 4 and 8 August with the possibility of radio black outs. http://bit.ly/dxlatest

Perseid Meteor Showers

The Perseids are likely to occur on 12-13 August. Details at: http://bit.ly/perseid16

Thanks to Mike Terry for regular updates