Friday, 26 January 2018

August 2017

Propagation Summary
On July 23rd, NASA and European spacecraft observed a massive explosion on the far side of the sun.  A spectacular Coronal Mass Ejection tore through the sun's atmosphere and it now appears to be en route to Mars. Earth will not feel the effects of the blast because of its location on the opposite side of the sun.  However, the source of the eruption will turn back toward our planet in early August, possibly bringing a new round of geomagnetic storms.
( via Mike Terry)

Propagation Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the return of the Coronal Mass ejection from 23 July as it rotates towards Earth.  Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

The Solar Flux is expected to range from normal to high levels.  The influence of recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams is expected to cause high levels from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug.  Moderate levels are expected on 30-31 Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.
Quiet to minor storm levels are likely on 05 Aug.  Quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul and 17-18 Aug.  Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and 19 Aug.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the multiple, recurrent, Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet.

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